Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
300 PM CST MON MAR 18 2002

...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HEAVY RAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.CURRENT...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED FROM NEAR KDRT TO BETWEEN KSJT AND KJCT...THEN TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH OF KDFW. SATELLITE DID HINT AT A LITTLE
CLEARING ABOUT 1PM...HOWEVER THIS FILLED IN AND THE 88-D IS SHOWING
NEW CONVECTION JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED UPPER-LOW DIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHILE GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. OF NOTE IS THAT
MODELS TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER IN BRINGING THE 500 MB LOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TO FORM IN NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT...AS
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY AS THE 850MB JET
GETS GOING AND PRODUCES GOOD LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT. THERE IS ALSO
GOOD DIVERGENCE AT 250 MB BETWEEN JET STREAKS COMING OUT OF MEXICO.
THIS IS A CLASSIC SET UP FOR TRAINING ECHOES THAT COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS. WITH THE HARD GROUND THAT WE HAVE AFTER BEING SO
DRY...DID CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO
...HOWEVER WITH OFFICE CONSENSUS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT SEE THE WHITES OF ITS EYES AND WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THIS OCCURRING WOULD BE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM KSJT NORTHEAST TO BETWEEN
KABI AND KBWD. HOWEVER WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE ZONES.

.LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE BREAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
OVERNIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION WILL RE-GENERATE AS MAIN PORTION OF UPPER-LOW PULLS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN CLEARING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID UP THE LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE GOING FORECAST DUE TO MORE CLOUDS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY FOR THESE
PERIODS.

.EXTENDED...CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS A ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE COMES
INTO THE WEST COAST AND BEGINS TO HEAD OUR WAY.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION FORT WORTH.

ABI 056/064/048/069 7660
SJT 057/065/048/069 6660
JCT 061/071/049/070 8770

.SJT...NONE.

27/BRAZZELL