Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
310 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

DRYLINE WAS ALONG WESTERN BOUNDARY OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LINE OF
CLOUDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SEEMINGLY ALIGNED WITH DRYLINE FROM FT
STOCKTON TO CHILDRESS APPEARS TO BE ALTOCUMULUS INSTEAD OF CUMULUS.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ALOFT WERE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR OVER REGION.
IN ADDITION SUBSIDENCE CONDITIONS WERE MOVING INTO TO THE REGION
BEHIND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AS INDICATED IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP.

RAIN CHANCES QUITE LOW TONIGHT WITH ABOVE CONDITIONS. CAN NOT REALLY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM HOWEVER. CAPES WILL RANGE
FROM ZERO OVER WESTERN HALF TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER EXTREME EASTERN
SECTIONS. THINKING AT THIS TIME...IS TO HAVE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS ONLY IN EASTERN ZONES.

COLD FRONT MOVES IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE LIMITED IN SOUTHERN ZONES WITH FRONT COMING IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTY
AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WHERE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED IN THE
AFTERNOON AT TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY....MOIST AIR RETURNS WITH WARM FRONT...
AND WEAK SHORTWAVES...SMALL POPS WARRANTED.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM GULF.

PRELIM CCF...
ABI 061/080/058/084/068 --12
SJT 064/086/062/087/068 --22
JCT 066/089/066/087/068 1122

.SJT...NONE.

04

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-082330-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
224 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...BUT NOT LIKELY.

THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THIS WILL CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
DROP RATHER QUICKLY. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.  ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS COULD
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.  AREAS WEST OF A
THROCKMORTON...COLEMAN...MENARD LINE WILL NOT SEE ANY AFTERNOON RAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.