Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
227 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

MORE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS
EVENING. DENSE CIRRUS CANOPY...WHICH LIMITED SURFACE HEATING
YESTERDAY...HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBO OF STRONG HEATING AND MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
PUSHING CAPE VALUES INTO THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. AS OF 1845Z...DRYLINE HAS
PUSHED THROUGH MIDLAND AND FORT STOCKTON...SO MAKING EASTWARD
PROGRESS. PER MSAS...BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURRING NEAR
THE PECOS RIVER IN FAR WESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY. SURMISE STORMS
COULD INITIATE HERE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
EXPECTED TO INTERSECT THE DRYLINE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z...AIDING THE
CAUSE. SO PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER. HOWEVER...THE CAP REMAINS
STRONG WITH CIN VALUES IN EXCESS OF 140 J/KG. THUS...BELIEVE
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 6 PM...THEN PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. STAY TUNED.

THE DRYLINE RETREATS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT
DOESN/T STRAY TOO FAR. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE
HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT. DRYLINE MIXES
THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS...WITH UPPER SUPPORT...TO BRING DECENT RAIN
CHANCES TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INITIAL FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THEN
PUMPS COPIOUS MOISTURE OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY...GENERATING
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TOUCHING OFF
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS TO LINGER OVER THE BIG
COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NEXT OF KIN ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG...NEAR THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ACTIVE MID MAY WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZING...RIGHT ON
SCHEDULE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK WARM AND HUMID IN CAPPED WARM SECTOR.

PRELIM CCF...

ABI 070/093/061/077 100
SJT 071/094/063/085 100
JCT 071/090/064/086 110

.SJT...NONE.

17

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-072330-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT A PERSISTENT
WARM LAYER OF AIR ALOFT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... GIVEN STRONG HEATING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE... ISOLATED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PRIMARILY THE WESTERN
HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
FORECASTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY... THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING
WINDS... AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.