Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED CCF NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
341 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2002

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURING IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWFA THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID/
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ORIENTED NNW TO SSE AND BISECTING OUR CWFA.
BASED ON RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SIGNATURES...APPEARS THAT A FEW
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE EMBEDDED ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS SHAR AXIS TO
MOVE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...THE
SETUP FAVORS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWFA. SOME OF OUR HEARTLAND AND NW HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES HAVE
RECEIVED THE GREATEST PREVIOUS RAINFALL...HAVE SATURATED GROUND AND
WOULD BE MORE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING. BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND RADAR
TRENDS...PLAN TO CARRY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR
HEARTLAND AND NW HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ALL OF OUR ZONES TONIGHT.

SHEAR AXIS TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD AND WEAKEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH THIS TREND...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY FOR OUR COUNTIES. WILL
NEED TO ADD A LOW POP SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. AS SHEAR AXIS WEAKENS EXPECT TO SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDCOVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FOR WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...THE PROSPECTS
APPEAR TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO SHOTGUN WITH LOW POPS...SO WILL
LEAVE SUNDAY DRY.

FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER HIGH PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH OUR REGION SITUATED IN ITS SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WOULD
FAVOR LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS FOR OUR AREA. CURRENT WORDING OF
EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
PLANNED.

ABI EB 071/083 071/088 072 19853
SJT EB 070/085 071/088 072 19543
JCT EB 070/081 071/089 071 19853=

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR MASON...MENARD...KIMBLE...
MCCULLOCH...SAN SABA...BROWN...COLEMAN COUNTIES.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-042315-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
224 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY AND WILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. WITH THE GROUND
SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
RUN OFF INTO CREEKS AND STREAMS...PERHAPS CAUSING THEM TO CLIMB OUT
OF THEIR BANKS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...EVEN HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.

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