Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS San Angelo, TX

July 4, 2002Brown County, Coleman County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this flash flood warning at Jul 4, 2002, 12:04 AM CDT for Brown County, Coleman County, Texas. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 4, 2002, 12:04 AM CDT (05:04 UTC)
Expired: Jul 4, 2002, 6:00 AM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: NWS San Angelo, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Brown County, TX, Coleman County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 220 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1128 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1311 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 53 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 143 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KSJT 040504
FFWSJT
TXC049-083-041100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1203 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  COLEMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
  BROWN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 600 AM CDT

* AT MIDNIGHT CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED             
  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MCCULLOCH AND SAN SABA           
  COUNTIES...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. COLEMAN AND BROWNWOOD CAN       
  EXPECT THESE RAINS BY 1230 AM.

* RAINFALL TOTALING 4 TO 6 INCHES FELL ACROSS EASTERN COLEMAN AND    
  WESTERN BROWN COUNTIES YESTERDAY...WITH ISOLATED 8 TO 10 INCH      
  AMOUNTS. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...ADDITIONAL FLOODING   
  WILL OCCUR FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES   
  IS LIKELY BY 600 AM. RESIDENTS OF BROWN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY THOSE  
  ALONG PECAN BAYOU...JIM NED CREEK AND IN THE LAKE BROWNWOOD        
  AREA....SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY RISING FLOODWATERS. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...
ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3205 9966 3159 9964 3149 9949 3151 9929
          3150 9904 3158 9891 3177 9878 3205 9894
          3206 9928

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 3, 9:58 PM CDT, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 3, 9:58 PM CDT, 2 hours 6 minutes before

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
958 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2002

PER RADAR TRENDS...FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON HOT SEAT FOR POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LLANO CURRENTLY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH TOWARD
SAN SABA AND BROWN COUNTIES...WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ISOLATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES. CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTEND
WELL SOUTH...ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO. LAKE BROWNWOOD MAY
PROVE TO BE THE TROUBLE SPOT...AS LAKE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE.
MINOR WORDING TWEAKS PLANNED FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE.

17

---------------------------------------------------------------------
225 PM DISCUSSION

UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH RAINFALL SPIRALING AROUND THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. RAINFALL REPORTS
THIS MORNING OF 5 TO 7 INCHES CAME IN FROM PARTS OF CALLAHAN
...BROWN...AND COLEMAN COUNTIES...WITH LIGHTER TOTALS OF AN INCH OR
TWO ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

MODELS SIMILAR IN FORECASTING THE SHEAR AXIS TO PRETTY MUCH BISECT
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE TWO
MAIN LOBES TO HELP CONCENTRATE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL JUST NORTH AND
JUST SOUTH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THE MODELS
GETTING THIS PLACEMENT EXACTLY CORRECT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 18Z RUC
INDICATING JUST ONE UPPER LOW AND LEAVING IT PARKED NEAR SAN ANGELO.
GIVEN ALL OF THE MODELS PERFORMANCE...WILL JUST GO WITH WHAT MAKES
THE MOST SENSE...BEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SHEAR AXIS WITH
SLIGHTLY LESSER POPS TO THE WEST. GIVEN THAT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE RAINS
THIS MORNING...AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL RUNNING QUITE
HIGH...WILL REISSUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND EXPAND IT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER TO THE WEST.

WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY HIGH POPS INTO THE MORNING...BUT AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES WEST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. STILL...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
ALTHOUGH MAIN SUPPORT WILL BE GONE...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY.

EXTENDED WISE...MRF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND DRAG IT SOUTH INTO TEXAS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE ENOUGH DIFFICULTY FORECASTING THESE CUTOFF LOWS
ACCURATELY OUT TO 48 HOURS...MUCH LESS THE 7TH DAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING POPS FOR NOW AND JUST WATCH TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

ABI 068/085/069/088 7523
SJT 069/085/070/088 7523
JCT 070/087/070/089 7523

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MASON...MENARD... MCCULLOCH...
KIMBLE...SAN SABA...BROWN...CALLAHAN...COLEMAN...CONCHO...SCHLEICHER
...SUTTON...TOM GREEN...COKE...AND TAYLOR COUNTIES TONIGHT.

07

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 7:47 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Sutton	3 hr
Jul 4, 5:40 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Coke	3 hr
Jul 4, 5:43 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Coke	3 hr
Jul 4, 6:02 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Sterling	3 hr
Jul 4, 6:43 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Tom Green	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2002 Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.