Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SUN APR 28 2002

LATE AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT: WILL MONITOR BAND OF CONVECTION OVER
VIRGINIA/NRN NC... AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA... FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF A POP THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND HAVE BEEN LIMITED OVER THE CWA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT SURFACE FLOW AND
THE RESIDUAL CLOUDS WHICH HAVE HELPED HOLD DOWN TEMPS A BIT. THE
BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS CONFINED TO EASTERN NC. ANY CELLS HOWEVER
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN 40+ KT WINDS. OTHERWISE... THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH INSTABILITY WANING AFTER
SUNSET... LEAVING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR ANY FURTHER CONVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE ENOUGH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INCOMING FRONT
FOR A QUICK SHOWER OR TWO LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EASES SE THROUGH
THE CWA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL. LOWS GENERALLY 56 TO 65.

MON-TUE: QUIET PERIOD WITH COOL HIGH BUILDING INTO & ACROSS NC. VORT
MAX CROSSING THE MIDATLANTIC REGION MON AFTERNOON WILL HELP HOLD THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE STATE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THE
RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS BY TUE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

TUE NGT-SUN: EXPECT TWO MAIN BATCHES OF PRECIP... ONE ARRIVING WITH
WARM FROPA AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY WED... AND THE SECOND OCCURING AHEAD OF COLD FROPA IN TANDEM
WITH THE RR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING. BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE WED THROUGH THU... WITH NCEP FAVORING
A MORE NORTHERN FRONTAL POSITION AND NC FIRMLY IN THE WARM AIR... WE
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...
ALTHOUGH THE PROGGED HIGH PW FAVORS RETAINING A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THU. FROPA LATE FRI AS THE VORT MAX HEADS INTO THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND DRIER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

.RAH...NONE.

HARTFIELD

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-290100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 PM EDT SUN APR 28 2002

...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING...

.SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
ACTIVATION OF THE TRIAD AND CENTRAL CAROLINA SKYWARN SPOTTER
NETWORKS MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM.
SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA.  IF
THESE STORMS MAKE IT THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF WARM MOIST AIR TO FEED UPON AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.HAZARDOUS WEATHER DETAILS...
THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE STORMS THROUGH 10 PM WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN EXCESS OF
50 MILES AN HOUR GET PUSHED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE PRIMARY RISK
AREA WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
MAINLY THE TRIAD REGION AS WELL AS AREAS NORTH OF RALEIGH-DURHAM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

WSS