Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
235 PM MDT THU JUN 20 2002

...FOCUS TONIGHT ON POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES...AND HEAVY
RAIN...
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO
THROUGH FRIDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY...

JUST TALKED TO SPC...THEY WILL ISSUE A TORNADO WATCH FOR THIS
EVENING.  PER DISCUSSION SHOULD INCLUDE EASTER TELLER COUNTY...EL
PASO COUNTY...PUEBLO COUNTY...HUERFANO COUNTY...LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
AND THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS.  MAIN THREATS FROM
STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW BRIEF
TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN.  WATCH TO BE IN EFFECT FROM 230 PM TIL 800
PM MDT.

CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 223 WITH POTENTIAL
FOR DRY LIGHTNING THERE...SO RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ZONE UNTIL 10
PM THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220 AND 223>225 WILL SEE DRY WITH ISOLATED
T-STORM CHANCES TOMORROW SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH THOSE ZONES FOR
FRIDAY.

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY), THINGS WILL BE WARMING UP
AND DRYING OUT AGAIN...WITH THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT RETURNING TO ALL
AREAS BY SATURDAY.  BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE RHS SHOULD DROP
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. ALSO HAINES VALUES BACK
UP TO 6.

THIS WARMER/DRYER REGIME WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. MAYBE SOME RELIEF WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER FRONT
COMING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS...BUT THEN LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE
WARMING AND DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY.  A LONG WAY OFF.

.PUB...TORNADO WATCH EASTERN TELLER COUNTY AND ALL OF THE
       SOUTHEAST PLAINS TIL 800 PM THIS EVENING (ZONES 67 AND 71>81)
       RED FLAG WARNING FIRE WEATHER ZONE 223 UNTIL 10 PM
       FIRE WEATHER WATCH FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220 AND 223>225 FRIDAY

COZ058>081-202000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 AM MDT THU JUN 20 2002

...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO THROUGH 7 AM TOMORROW...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 1 PM FOR SEVERAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

A COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY
PROVIDED BY THESE EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...WITH ACTIVITY ENDING AROUND SUNSET
FARTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

THE GREATEST THREAT WITH STORMS TODAY WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...
ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.  WIND SHEAR
IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS...AND
WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN PLACE
OVER THE PLAINS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.

ANOTHER THREAT WITH ANY STORMS FORMING TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AN
INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
INTENSE RAINFALL...RESULTING IN RAPID RUNOFF.  EXCESSIVE PONDING OF
WATER AND HIGH STREAMFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

FARTHER WEST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ANY LARGE
FOREST FIRE. DUE TO LESSER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
FARTHER WEST...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL...BUT MAY PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PLUS ERRATIC
AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 55 MPH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.