Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Phoenix, AZ

October 26, 2002Maricopa County, Arizona

NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 26, 2002, 3:15 PM MST for Maricopa County, Arizona. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 26, 2002, 3:15 PM MST (22:15 UTC)
Expired: Oct 26, 2002, 4:00 PM MST
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Phoenix, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Maricopa County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1382 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 185 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 217 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

889 
WUUS55 KPSR 262215
SVRPSR
AZC013-262300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
313 PM MST SAT OCT 26 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 400 PM MST

* AT 300 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WICKENBURG...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MORRISTOWN... AND WICKENBURG BY 325 PM MST.

HAIL...THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER...IS LIKELY 
WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR 
IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE INDOORS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN PHOENIX.

LAT...LON 3387 11292 3373 11280 3399 11229 3419 11246

ELLIS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 26, 3:05 PM MST, 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 26, 3:05 PM MST, 10 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-270545-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 PM MST SAT OCT 26 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END OVER THE LOWER DESERT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA SUNDAY EVENING...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA ON MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. NICKEL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH VERIFIED A COUPLE OF WARNINGS
ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...TRAINING OF ECHOES HAS RESULTED
IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
MARICOPA COUNTY...WHERE AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. SEVERAL RAIN GAUGES IN THE PHOENIX
METROPOLITAN AREA MEASURED SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1 INCH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST DYNAMICS...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHEAST AZ...WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE
JET MOVES INTO NM...BUT ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK IS MOVING SOUTH
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. EVEN THOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE
AS FAVORABLE WITH THIS JET STREAK...AND RAINFALL RATES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT AS WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY...DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. VISIBLE
IMAGES INDICATE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER ATTM...SO WILL RETAIN
CHANCE /SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING THERE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEPART STATE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. WILL LET MAX TEMPS BEGIN TO
REBOUND OVER S CNTRL AZ MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ THRU MONDAY. IN EXTENDED
(WED-SAT)...TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AS 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
NEAR 5760 M. INCREASING SWLY FLOW FRI-SAT AS A WX SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AT
THAT TIME...AND WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHILE
KEEPING IT DRY. DG

.PSR...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 26, 10:33 AM MST, 4 hours 42 minutes before

AZZ022>024-027-028-270100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1033 AM MST SAT OCT 26 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN...AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX
METROPOLITAN AREA...GILA BEND...CASA GRANDE...AND GLOBE...TODAY.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

.INSTRUCTIONS TO SPOTTERS...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 26, 1:13 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Maricopa	47 min
Oct 26, 2:16 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Maricopa	44 min
Oct 26, 2:33 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Maricopa	42 min
Oct 26, 3:01 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Gila, Maricopa, Pinal	44 min
Oct 26, 3:48 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Gila	42 min
Oct 26, 4:00 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Maricopa	45 min
Oct 26, 4:14 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Gila, Pinal	46 min
Oct 26, 4:14 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Gila	46 min
Oct 26, 4:14 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Pinal	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.