Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Phoenix, AZ

October 26, 2002Maricopa County, Arizona

NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 26, 2002, 2:33 PM MST for Maricopa County, Arizona. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 26, 2002, 2:33 PM MST (21:33 UTC)
Expired
Oct 26, 2002, 3:15 PM MST
In force
42 min
Issued by
NWS Phoenix, AZ
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Maricopa County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2002-10-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2002-10-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 185 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1382 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
185 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
217 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

529 
WUUS55 KPSR 262133
SVRPSR
AZC013-262215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
231 PM MST SAT OCT 26 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 315 PM MST

* AT 220 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WICKENBURG...OR ABOUT 18
  MILES NORTH OF TONOPAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WICKENBURG BY 315 PM MST.

MARBLE SIZE HAIL GREATER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE 
WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR 
IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE INDOORS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN PHOENIX.

LAT...LON 3376 11315 3366 11297 3395 11269 3409 11294

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 26, 10:20 AM MST, 4 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 26, 10:20 AM MST, 4 hours 13 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-262245-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 AM MST SAT OCT 26 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH EVEN COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY OVER THE LOWER DESERT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER SW AND
S-CNTRL AZ...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX METRO AREA. ACTIVE WX
AREA IS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT 300 MB JET CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF 16Z. THIS JET MAX IS PROGGED TO
PROPAGATE TOWARD THE ENE TODAY...AND BE OVER SW NEW MEXICO BY THIS
EVENING. 12Z PLOT DATA INDICATES COOLER MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS TO
OUR WEST...WITH -21 C 500 MB TEMP AT SAN DIEGO WHILE TUCSON WAS -15
C. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE INCREASE THANKS TO DEEP-LAYER SOUTH
FLOW...WITH GOES TPW IMAGES INDICATING .75-.9 OVER MOST OF LOWER
DESERT AS OF 15Z ...AND ADDITIONAL MOISTENING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER JET AND DESTABILIZING
TREND... POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST
WITH STORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER JET STREAK MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WHILE THE 500 MB LOW CENTER DRIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ. ETA/AVN FORECAST MOIST LAYER TO DEEPEN WHILE
UVV INCREASES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT AS SFC FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER FAR WESTERN AZ MOVES INTO THAT AREA. UPPER JET CONFIGURATION
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TONIGHT...BUT THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ INTO EARLY SUNDAY THANKS
TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...AND MOISTURE
INCREASE. S-CNTRL AZ PORTION OF CWA SHOULD RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN
FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER DESERT WHILE ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ HIGHER TERRAIN. CURRENT ZONES IN DECENT SHAPE. NO
UPDATES.

.PSR...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 26, 10:33 AM MST, 4 hours before
AZZ022>024-027-028-270100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1033 AM MST SAT OCT 26 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN...AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX
METROPOLITAN AREA...GILA BEND...CASA GRANDE...AND GLOBE...TODAY.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

.INSTRUCTIONS TO SPOTTERS...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 26, 1:13 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRMaricopa47 min
Oct 26, 2:16 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRMaricopa44 min
Oct 26, 3:01 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRGila, Maricopa, Pinal44 min
Oct 26, 3:15 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRMaricopa45 min
Oct 26, 3:48 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRGila42 min
Oct 26, 4:00 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRMaricopa45 min
Oct 26, 4:14 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRGila, Pinal46 min
Oct 26, 4:14 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRGila46 min
Oct 26, 4:14 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRPinal46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.