Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
950 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

TEMPTED TO PULL TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...BUT STILL HAVE LINGERING DOUBTS AS TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE RAIN SHIELD OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE 850MB FRONT...WHICH MAY TRY
TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP.  IF IT
MOVES A COUNTY OR TWO NORTH...EVEN THE RAIN-SOAKED NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WILL BE SPARED PROLONGED HEAVY RAINS.  FOR NOW WILL LET IT
RIDE WITH A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THOSE ZONES AND LET THE
MIDSHIFT ISSUE THE FFA IF NECESSARY AT THAT TIME.

CURRENT METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM
FRONT EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.  GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MISSOURI AND THE BOW ECHOES/MCSS MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE NORTHWARD SURGE
OF THE WARM FRONT...PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...MAY HAVE TO BE
RECONSIDERED.

THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM PAH AND TEH BLOOMFIELD PROFILER WIND
FIELDS ARE IMPROVING...BUT WINDS THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WERE
PATHETICALLY WEAK EARLIER THIS EVENING.  THE CURRENT PROFILE
INDICATES A DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MAX UP TO 30
KTS...BUT THE WINDS ABOVE IT WERE STILL WEAK AND BACKING WITH
HEIGHT.  SO IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WIND PROFILES IMPROVE...WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL
DUE TO THE EXPECTED ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS...BUT IF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY CAN HOLD ITS IDENTITY AND MOVE NORTHWARD CLOSER TO
OR INTO THE AREA...WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO BE A THREAT.  HAVE VERY
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MODEL DATA WITH THIS MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVE
REGIME...SO PINPOINTING BOUNDARY EVOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DIFFICULT.

GOING ZONES LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.  NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED

.PAH...NONE.

DRS