Alert archive / Missouri / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Paducah, KY

May 8, 2002Carter County, Missouri

NWS Paducah, KY issued this flash flood warning at May 8, 2002, 6:17 AM CDT for Carter County, Missouri. It was in force for 118 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 8, 2002, 6:17 AM CDT (11:17 UTC)
Expired: May 8, 2002, 8:15 AM CDT
In force: 118 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Carter County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 190 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 261 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2210 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 970 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 92 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 138 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.7
Supercell composite: 13.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KPAH 081117
FFWPAH
MOC035-081315-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
614 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CARTER COUNTY IN MISSOURI

* UNTIL 815 AM CDT

* AT 614 AM CDT...AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT CONTINUE TO REPORT FLOODING 
PROBLEMS IN AND AROUND VAN BUREN. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF 
ROCK AND MUD SLIDES NEAR THE WAYNE COUNTY BORDER.

* RAIN HAS COME TO A END TEMPORARILY. FLOOD WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE 
TO RUNOFF AND CREEKS AND DITCHES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO RECEDE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ELLSINORE AND VAN BUREN

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN IT IS 
HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR 
VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. VEHICLES CAUGHT 
IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND 
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3708 9122 3708 9109 3710 9098 3705 9097
          3704 9075 3684 9074 3684 9122

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 8, 1:30 AM CDT, 4 hours 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 8, 1:30 AM CDT, 4 hours 47 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONGOING PRECIPITATION DISTORTING
SURFACE FEATURES. IR SAT PICS SHOWS COLDEST TOPS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
EAST. MORE CONVECTION WAS FIRING UP OVER WESTERN MO AND EASTERN
KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST. ONGOING STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND WOULD
EXPECT HAIL TO BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

OUTFLOW OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL WORK TO REENFORCE THE REMNANTS
OF BOUNDARY PLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM EARLYIER STORMS. THIS
SHOULD SLOW THE RETURN OF THE WARM FRONT PROGGED TO TAKE PLACE TODAY.
00Z WED MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A REPEAT OF TUE AM WEATHER THIS AM AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AM. MCS SHOULD BEGIN DEPARTING PAH FA LATE THIS
MORNING WITH MESO HIGH KEEPING THINGS SETTLED MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER MCS OVERNIGHT AS
COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE AREA THURSDAY. FLOODING COULD BE A
PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS FINAL MCS MAKES IT WAY ACROSS THE REGION. AN
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESARY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR KNOW
AND SEE WHAT EFFECT THIS AM PRCIP HAS ON FFG FOR SECOND PERIOD.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER KEPT TEMPS WELL BELOW MOS GUIDANCE YESTERDAY
FROM THE LINGERING MCS. WOULD EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY.

.PAH...NONE.

KH

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 8, 3:02 AM CDT, 3 hours 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0204 AM    FRUITLAND                 MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/08/02   CAPE GIRARDEAU                 REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0222 AM    CAPE GIRARDEAU            MO   WIND DAMAGE
05/08/02   CAPE GIRARDEAU                 NUMEROUS TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN REPORTED
                                          BY CAPE COUNTY EM

Special weather statement, May 8, 6:00 AM CDT, 17 minutes before

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-081701-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
600 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

THREATS...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE QUAD STATE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
EARLY TODAY LIES OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT LOCATED OUT OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WIND FLOW
PATTERNS ALOFT ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GROUND IS
ALREADY QUITE SATURATED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THEREFORE...FLOODING COULD ALSO BE A PROBLEM
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE QUAD
STATE REGION.

OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY...
FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION.

MEFFERT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 8, 12:38 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Wayne	37 min
May 8, 2:25 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Carter	4 hr
May 8, 3:28 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Wayne	6 hr
May 8, 4:58 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Scott	4 hr
May 8, 5:09 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Scott	4 hr
May 8, 5:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Scott	35 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2002 Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.