Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

RECENTLY ISSUED REGULAR MORNING ZONE PACKAGE/CCF/RDF...IN LIEU OF
TEMPORARY ZONE UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 4 AM. ALTHOUGH
WX GRAPHICS FOR WEB WILL SHOW MAINLY SHOWERS TODAY...I ADJUSTED THE
IFPS MATRICES FOR THE REVISED DIGITAL FORECAST TO HANDLE ANY
POST-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST 9 AM.

POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND LIMITING CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT SEEMED TO BE SLOWING SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. I CANNOT RULE OUT THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT LEANED ZONES TO
GENERAL NON-SEVERE TSRA CONVECTION THROUGH MID-MORNING.

GENERALLY KEPT DAYSHIFT FORECASTERS PACKAGE INTACT...BUT ADJUSTED
MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN 1/2 OF CWA.
AVN/MESOETA SEEM TO HANG UP FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG MO/AR AND KY/TN
BORDER...SO ANY LIFT ACROSS FRONT THROUGH 15Z-18Z MAY PRODUCE
THUNDER...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

NGM/AVN MOS A LITTLE DIVERGENT WITH MAXES ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT
TODAY. I DECIDED TO USE ETA MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS...WHICH IS A ROUGH COMPROMISE BETWEEN NGM AND AVN MOS.

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE...EXCEPT MINOR TWEEKS TO
MAX/MIN TEMPS.

.PAH...NONE.

SMITH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-
020735-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
205 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 200 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO RIVER...ENDING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE TORNADO WATCH AREA. THEREFORE...
THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

ILZ075>078-080>090-092>094-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-021200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
527 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 700 AM...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 700 AM...OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PAST HISTORY OF PRODUCING DIME OR
NICKEL SIZE HAIL OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR A PERRYVILLE TO VAN BUREN
MISSOURI LINE AROUND 630 AM...REACHING NEAR A DONIPHAN TO JACKSON
MISSOURI LINE BY 7 AM.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
FROM GRAND TOWER TO CARMI THROUGH 7 AM.

&&

SMITH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-021707-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
621 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

THREATS...
THERE IS A THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...SOME
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LARGER THAN DIME SIZE HAIL AND LOCAL WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALL...BUT COMPLETELY MOVED EAST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE 2000
FEET FROM THE GROUND CONTINUE TO PULL MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS
THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS MOIST AIR...COMBINED WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE OR LARGER. WHERE SURFACE WINDS INTERACT
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS...THERE MAY ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LITHIUM
MISSOURI...PINCKNEYVILLE...CARMI ILLINOIS...ONWARD TO EVANSVILLE AND
SANTA CLAUS INDIANA.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND WEST TENNESSEE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT SPOTTERS
SHOULD KEEP POSTED TO THE LATEST WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS THIS MORNING.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
656 AM CDT THU MAY 02 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

622  AM    DESOTO                    IL   2.00 INCH HAIL
05/02/02   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY JACKSON
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE
                                          EMPLOYEE.

0627 AM    GRAND TOWER               IL   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/02/02   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

0637 AM    CARBONDALE                IL   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/02/02   JACKSON                        HAIL REPORTED 5 MILES
                                          SOUTH OF CARBONDALE.
                                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

0645 AM    VAN BUREN                 MO   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/02/02   CARTER                         REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

0645 AM    JOHNSON CITY              IL   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/02/02   WILLIAMSON                     REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

0658 AM    NEW BURNSIDE              IL   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/02/02   JOHNSON                        REPORTED BY JOHNSON
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE