Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Paducah, KY

May 2, 2002Perry County, Missouri

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 2, 2002, 6:16 AM CDT for Perry County, Missouri. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 2, 2002, 6:16 AM CDT (11:16 UTC)
Expired: May 2, 2002, 6:45 AM CDT
In force: 29 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Perry County, MO

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 293 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 92 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -276 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 461 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 82 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 405 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 603 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 9.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KPAH 021116
SVRPAH
MOC157-021145-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
616 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  PERRY COUNTY IN MISSOURI

* UNTIL 645 AM CDT

* AT 613 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF PERRYVILLE...MOVING EAST
  AT 60 MPH.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IS LIKELY. FOR YOUR 
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME 
OR BUSINESS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY 
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST 
OFFICE IN PADUCAH.

LAT...LON 3774 9023 3761 9007 3764 8956 3802 8992

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 2, 2:38 AM CDT, 3 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 2, 2:38 AM CDT, 3 hours 38 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

RECENTLY ISSUED REGULAR MORNING ZONE PACKAGE/CCF/RDF...IN LIEU OF
TEMPORARY ZONE UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 4 AM. ALTHOUGH
WX GRAPHICS FOR WEB WILL SHOW MAINLY SHOWERS TODAY...I ADJUSTED THE
IFPS MATRICES FOR THE REVISED DIGITAL FORECAST TO HANDLE ANY
POST-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST 9 AM.

POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND LIMITING CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT SEEMED TO BE SLOWING SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. I CANNOT RULE OUT THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT LEANED ZONES TO
GENERAL NON-SEVERE TSRA CONVECTION THROUGH MID-MORNING.

GENERALLY KEPT DAYSHIFT FORECASTERS PACKAGE INTACT...BUT ADJUSTED
MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN 1/2 OF CWA.
AVN/MESOETA SEEM TO HANG UP FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG MO/AR AND KY/TN
BORDER...SO ANY LIFT ACROSS FRONT THROUGH 15Z-18Z MAY PRODUCE
THUNDER...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

NGM/AVN MOS A LITTLE DIVERGENT WITH MAXES ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT
TODAY. I DECIDED TO USE ETA MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS...WHICH IS A ROUGH COMPROMISE BETWEEN NGM AND AVN MOS.

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE...EXCEPT MINOR TWEEKS TO
MAX/MIN TEMPS.

.PAH...NONE.

SMITH

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 2, 2:05 AM CDT, 4 hours 11 minutes before

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-
020735-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
205 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 200 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO RIVER...ENDING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE TORNADO WATCH AREA. THEREFORE...
THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

Special weather statement, May 2, 5:27 AM CDT, 49 minutes before

ILZ075>078-080>090-092>094-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-021200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
527 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 700 AM...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 700 AM...OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PAST HISTORY OF PRODUCING DIME OR
NICKEL SIZE HAIL OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR A PERRYVILLE TO VAN BUREN
MISSOURI LINE AROUND 630 AM...REACHING NEAR A DONIPHAN TO JACKSON
MISSOURI LINE BY 7 AM.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
FROM GRAND TOWER TO CARMI THROUGH 7 AM.

&&

SMITH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 1, 10:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ripley	49 min
May 2, 6:34 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carter	56 min
May 2, 6:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Wayne	46 min
May 2, 7:15 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger	30 min
May 2, 7:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Stoddard	45 min
May 2, 7:45 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Scott	60 min
May 2, 7:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi	46 min
May 2, 8:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Stoddard	10 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.