Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Paducah, KY

000 
RWUS32 KPAH 260452
FFSPAH
ILC003-127-153-KYC007-145-MOC133-260600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1050 PM CST MON MAR 25 2002

FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR...
  MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN MISSOURI
  ALEXANDER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
  MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
  PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
  BALLARD COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
  MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY

UNTIL 12 MIDNIGHT CST

AT 1045 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL CONTINUED ACROSS 
THE WARNED AREA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAD LIKELY DECREASED TO 
LESS THAN 1/10 AN INCH PER HOUR IN MOST AREAS.  

SEVERAL ROADS WERE REPORTED FLOODED BETWEEN 10 AND 1030 PM...INCLUDING
...U.S. HWY 62 IN LOVELACEVILLE DUE TO WATER FROM MAYFIELD CREEK...
AND WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE ROAD AT 28TH & CLAY AND 29TH AND 
TRIMBLE IN PADUCAH.

THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL 
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. 

$$

SHANKLIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CST MON MAR 25 2002

MAIN FORECAST AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CENTER OVER ARKLATEX. SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF MURRAY KY TO JUST SOUTH OF
MADISONVILLE. CURRENT PAH 88D SHOWS SUPERCELL OVER NE ARKANSAS
WEAKENING AS IT MIGRATES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FREEZING LEVEL AROUND
10K SOUTH AND 9K NORTH PORTIONS OF FA. FRONT APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW
VIA FORECAST SOUNDING AND CURRENT VAD PLACE IT ABOUT 3K ABOVE MSL
OVER FA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

12Z MON MODEL RUNS SHOW THE ETA TAKING A MUCH MORE NORTHERLY PATH
ACROSS THE FA AND THE AVN INCREASES ITS SPEED...INTENSITY AND TAKES
A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH THAN THE ETA. FIRST CONCERN IS FLOODING
POTENTIAL. MODEL QPF IS PLACING OVER AN INCH OVER MOST OF FA. HPC
HAS PAH FA EXCEEDING FFG. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MORE
THAN AN INCH PER HOUR...BUT WITH PRACTICALLY ALL RIVERS IN FLOOD OR
FORECAST TO FLOOD...CANNOT DISMISS ADDITIONAL FLOODING ACROSS ENTIRE
FA. FINALLY WINTER WEATHER IS A CONCERN FOR THE NW SECTIONS OF THE
FA. WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS OVER THE AREA...SCENARIO IS RIGHT FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER
TO SOME LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AM.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE 12Z RUN.
HOWEVER...CURRENT OBS INDICATE MODELS ARE RUNNING TOO WARM.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

.PAH...FLOOD WATCH ALL AREAS.
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF LINE FROM
       PERRYVILLE MO JUST NORTH OF MARION IL TO PETERSBURG IN.

KH

KYZ001>006-008-009-011-012-017-022-MOZ112-114-252230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
358 PM CST MON MAR 25 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 36 FOR SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY AND A
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI HAS EXPIRED...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED...SO THE WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.