Severe Thunderstorm Warning 306, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
455 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2002

ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION THIS MORNING DUE TO ONGOING WEATHER.  CURRENT
SMALL MCS OVER SERN NEB/SWRN IA IS OCCURRING ON THE NOSE OF A 30-40
KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN AN AXIS OF RETURNING DEEPER MOISTURE (SEE 00Z
TOP SOUNDING).  AT 09Z, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WAS OBSERVED OVER
NERN WY WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED SEWD THRU SWRN
NEB INTO NERN KS.

ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
THE WEAKENING OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET.  CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION N OF THE LIFTING SURFACE WARM FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.  OVERNIGHT, A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER AZ (PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) AND ENHANCED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALONG A 50-60
KT LOW-LEVEL JET ARGUE FOR HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS.  MUCH OF CWFA
WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NRN
ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY.  THEREAFTER, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LITTLE OR NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.OMA...NONE.
MEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
212 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0202 AM    (LNK)LINCOLN ARPT         NE   .75 INCH HAIL
08/20/02   LANCASTER                      ASOS OBSERVATION

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-201700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
535 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2002

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING EAST
INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND MISSOURI THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT IS OVER FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...NORTH OF A NELIGH TO PENDER LINE.  INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
OR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY.	THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATIC
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/OAX OR AT WEATHER.GOV (LOWER CASE).

MEAD