Special Marine Warning 49, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2002

AT THE AFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLC
COAST EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR INCREASED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.  ALOFT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE WEST WITH PERSISTENT
UPPER TROF JUST OFF THE ATLC COAST STRETCHING SW INTO THE EASTERN
CENTRAL GULF.  LATEST WV/IR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK IMPULSES
EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE SE STATES MOST LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST. LATEST THINKING BELIEVE AS NEXT
IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST LATER TODAY AND SFC WINDS DO
INCREASED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BEGIN NEAR THE NWFL COAST
SHIFTING INLAND A LITTLE BETTER TODAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  LATEST
SOUNDING FROM NEW SUGGESTS DRYER AIR ALSO IN PLACE IN THE MIDDLE
LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS 2 INCHES OR
BETTER.  WITH THIS HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY MOST STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY.

LATEST MODELS SOLUTIONS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR W/CURRENT PATTERN THOUGH
ALL MODELS NOW SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF LATER THIS WEEK INTERACTING WITH DEEPENING RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT MOS POPS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER NWFL STRETCHING NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AL.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK CLOSE.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED THROUGH TUES WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FIRE...NO CONCERNS.

/32
PRELIM NUMBERS...

MOB BB 090/074 090/074 090 32435
PNS BB 089/075 089/076 090 32535
DTS BB 087/076 088/077 089 32533
GZH BB 092/071 092/071 090 32533
2R0 BB 092/072 092/071 091 32323
61A BB 092/072 092/071 091 32323

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.