Special Marine Warning 45, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
248 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2002

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER HEIGHT FIELD AS A WEAKNESS CONTINUES
OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION.  UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN STATES.  THUS...WEAK MID LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE ALLOWED TO STREAM SOUTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.  A MOIST...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION IN THE SHORT RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  ONLY SURFACE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE THAT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEABREEZE.  STORMS WILL BE OF THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING VARIETY FROM AFTERNOON HEATING
AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT (1.5 TO 2 INCHES).  MM5 MODEL 3
HR PRECIPITATION FORECAST TRENDS SUPPORTS THIS...WITH DIURNAL
AFTERNOON GROWTH OF STORMS...THEN DISSIPATION INTO THE EVENING.  ETA
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE PERSISTENT...TO
ALLOW FOR BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.
SEE NOTHING TO AFFECT NIGHTTIME MINS...SO WILL TAKE A PERSISTENCE
APPROACH WHEN CONSIDERING THESE. A SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME CONTINUES TO MODERATE COASTAL MAXES.

OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
BEING MONITORED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FOR POTENTIAL
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE A NON-PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST...APPOACHING THE
LOWER TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICAN COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.

EXTENDED RANGE...UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER MID WEST
AND BECOMES REINFORCED OVER THE EASTERN STATES.  THIS WILL ALLOW A
SURFACE TROF TO SETTLE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN DISSIPATE INTO THE WEEKEND.  DUE
TO THE FLOW...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT LITTLE CHANGE. /10

MARITIMES...WEAK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE MARINE AREA
INTO EARLY WEEK.  AVN MODEL BRINGS OFFSHORE WIND AROUND/AFTER MIDWEEK
DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INDUCED LOW INGRESSING INTO THE AREA...BUT
AM NOT BEING LED DOWN THAT PRIMROSE PATH. MAINLY KEEPING
CONTINUITY/PERSISTENCE WITH WEAK TROF PERSISTING NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. SEABREEZE AND INVERTED TROF
WILL MAKE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OFFSHORE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE
IN WIND AND SEAS.

FIRE...NO FLAGS NEEDED AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF RAIN TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. DISPERSION MODERATE...IN 40S. /77

PRELIM NUMBERS...
MOB   74  90  74  90 /  20  40  20  30
PNS   76  89  75  89 /  20  30  20  30
DTS   77  88  76  88 /  20  30  20  30
GZH   72  92  71  92 /  20  40  20  30
2R0   72  92  72  92 /  30  40  20  30
61A   72  92  72  92 /  20  40  20  30

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.