Special Marine Warning 28, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
249 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2002

A WEAK SFC-MID LEVEL TROF ORIENTED NE-SW FROM THE FL PANHANDLE
TO SOUTH OF LA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY AS THE SIMILARLY ORIENTED H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND
THE CLOSED SFC-H5 LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.  SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HELD MORE TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A MORE NORTHEAST COMPONENT.  PREVIOUS DAYS
CONVECTION LEFT A BOUNDARY OVER THE INLAND PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ON WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING TODAY...AND WHICH MAY SERVE
AS AN INITIATING BOUNDARY AGAIN ON THURSDAY.  ON THE WHOLE...WILL
STAY WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY.  DRIER AIR MAY WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS COVERAGE...BUT FOR NOW
WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS IN CURRENT PACKAGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF
STRENGTH AND PATH OF H5 LOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RETURN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE H5 LOW WORKS WESTWARD UNDER THE H5
RIDGE.  NCEP EPD NOTES THAT A BLEND OF THE 12Z AVN WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE 00Z AVN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE...GIVEN THAT THE H5 LOW
IS SHOULDERING ITS WAY INTO THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.  GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO UNFOLD...AND THAT THE PATH OF THE H5 LOW
IS UNCERTAIN...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED.

MARINE...NO CONCERNS EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

FIRE...NO CONCERNS.

MOB BB 070/089 070/089 069 292423
PNS BB 073/088 072/088 071 292423
DTS BB 074/087 073/087 072 292423
GZH BB 066/090 066/090 065 293422
2R0 BB 067/091 066/091 064 293422
61A BB 067/090 066/090 064 293422

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.