Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2002

LARGE DOME OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. AT THE SURFACE...TROF WAS POSITIONED
OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  TODAY MARKS A
TRANSITION. IT IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TO PINCH
OFF AN UPPER LOW FROM THE PARENT EASTERN STATES TROF...AND RETROGRADE
IT WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE IT WILL BE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY...NORTHWEST COUNTIES (SE
MISSISSIPPI ZONES) WILL BE ON THE FAVORED...DRY WESTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MUST CONSIDER THAT A COLD POOL ( -10C)
AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD WHICH CAUSES AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
FOR CONVECTIVE FORMATION.  FOR FRIDAY...MM5 MODEL PAINTS A SIMILAR
PICTURE WITH REGARD TO 3 HR PRECIPITATION AS IS OCURRING ON RADAR
TODAY. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER THAT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED COVERAGES OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
AND COAST FRIDAY.  AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHEN WE COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATERS 1.5 INCHES-> INCREASING TO 1.8-2 INCHES) WHICH
SPREADS WEST ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW. WILL FAVOR THE AVIATION
SOLUTION DUE...TO WHAT LOOKS TO BE A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF
TRACKING A WEAKLY REFLECTED SURFACE LOW...WEST NORTHWEST...ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...UNDER A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER SYSTEM. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...SEE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE NEXT FEW PERIODS.
ALTHOUGH A BIT LOWER WITH INCREASING MOISTURE DEPTH...SATURDAYS
MAXES WILL BE A FUNCTION OF PRECIPITATION TIMING.

MARINE...WEAK HIGH CONTINUES TO BRING EAST FLOW VEERING TO NORTHEAST
OVER CWA THROUGH WEEKEND. WEAK TROF COMES THRU FROM EAST MAKING IT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BRIEFLY MONDAY AND THEN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUE.
SEABREEZE SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM IN THIS REGIME AND
THUS WOULD XPCT A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE BEACH DURING THE DAY.

FIRE...RH AND DISPERSION VALUES POSE NO THREAT. SEABREEZE SHOULD NOT
HAVE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM MAKING SOME RAIN FOR THE AREA.

EXTENDED RANGE...DEEP MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS TO THE WEST AND AN ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH NOSING INTO THE EASTERN GULF.  A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY.

10/77

PRELIM NUMBERS...
MOB   70  90  70  87 /  10  30  20  50
PNS   73  89  72  85 /  10  40  20  50
DTS   74  87  73  84 /  10  40  20  50
GZH   65  90  66  86 /  10  30  20  50
2R0   66  90  66  86 /  10  20  20  50
61A   65  90  66  86 /  10  30  20  50

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.