Special Marine Warning 147, NWS Mobile, AL

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ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-192100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1025 AM CST THU DEC 19 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LIFTED INDEX INDICATES STABILITY WAS MODERATE AS OF THIS
MORNING...BUT THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE AND CONVECTIVE ENERGY
AVAILABILITY INDICATES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH DYNAMIC FORCING. TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS SITUATION AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE GREATEST
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...STORM SPOTTERS
AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS.  DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS NEXT FRONT.  YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.