Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2002

UPDATED ALL ZONES FOR TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 804.  THIS MORNINGS NEW
ZONE PACKAGE WILL BE OUT BY 430 AM...

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SETTING UP TO BE A BUSY CHRISTMAS EVE WEATHER WISE.  AFTER LOOKING
AT 00Z MODEL DATA...APPEARS FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FCST AREA BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS A STRONG SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDING
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING
MORE INTENSE...WITH SOME SVR AND/OR TORNADIC STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE.  TORNADO WATCH 803 IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA AND JUST CONCLUDED CONFERENCE CALL WITH SPC.  WILL ISSUE
NEW TORNADO WATCH...NUMBER 804...WHICH WILL COVER MY ENTIRE CWFA
UNTIL 15Z THIS MORNING.  EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NOON TODAY.
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WITH SCATTERED STORMS OUT AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE...WITH BOWS AND LEWPS IN SQUALL LINE BEING THE
PRIMARY SVR THREAT LATER ON THIS MORNING.  MEDIA...EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS DIDNT SEEM TO INITIALIZE THE SQUALL LINE VERY WELL AT
ALL...BUT ETA DOES SEEM TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.  EVEN WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES...MODELS AGREE THAT FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY THIS EVENING.  STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...AND TO THE EAST
IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM
THE WEST THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING.  WILL COOL IT DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY WITH MID 20S WELL INLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT EXTENDED FCST.

MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
TODAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

FIRE...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

12/SHEPHERD

PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS...
MOB TU 068/040 053/030 053 12+10
PNS TU 070/042 053/033 053 12+20
DTS TU 070/044 054/034 052 12+20
GZH TU 068/039 049/027 049 12+20
2R0 TU 062/035 048/025 049 12+10
61A TU 068/039 049/027 049 12+20

MOB...
AL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ630-650-670.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ655-675.
MS...NONE.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-240300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
150 PM CST MON DEC 23 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE UP FROM
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITIES BEHIND A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
FEW STRONG STORMS TONIGHT...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE REGION...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO SOUTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA SOMETIME
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...STORM SPOTTERS
AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH
INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATER WITH THE
STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR.  THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
TORNADOES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE...THEN DAMAGING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF
STORMS.  THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...STORM
SPOTTERS AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS MAY BE REQUIRED BEGINNING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.  DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL CHRISTMAS DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES
SOMETIME LATE ON FRIDAY.