Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WGUS74 KMOB 290146
FFSMOB
MSC039-131-290300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
745 PM CST MON OCT 28 2002

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN 
GEORGE AND EASTERN STONE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

AT 745 PM CST...ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED 
OVER STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...FLOODING 
PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 900 PM UNTIL THE RUNOFF SUBSIDES.

IN STONE COUNTY ALONG HIGHWAY 29...NORTH LAKE ROAD AND MARSHALL 
TAYLOR ROADS ARE COVERED WITH WATER...AS WELL AS EAST KINGBEE ROAD 
IN BIG LEVEL.

IN GEORGE COUNTY...WATER COVERS THE ROAD AT THE INTERSECTION OF 
HIGHWAY 98 AND HIGHWAY 63.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

000 
WGUS74 KMOB 290303
FFSMOB
MSC039-131-290400-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
902 PM CST MON OCT 28 2002

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN GEORGE AND EASTERN STONE 
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

AT 900 PM CST...THE FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL 
ACROSS STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY 
ENDED...EXCEPT FOR WATER LINGERING OVER A FEW ROADS.  AS THESE 
PROBLEM AREAS ARE IMPROVING AND NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL 
IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  MINOR FLOODING NEAR 
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SWOLLEN STREAMS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING 
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
230 PM CST MON OCT 28 2002

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW CONTINUES TO BE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
EAST TEXAS. TRAINING CELLS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED
BY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET AND RICH MOISTURE POOLING FROM THE GULF.
DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA SINCE LATE LAST WEEK...THE
GROUND IS SATURATED AND LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE RISING. WARMING
TEMPS AND HIGH THETA VALUES ARE INCREASING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
RAINFALL MAY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD CRITERIA TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
OUT OF TEXAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
HIGH OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RETREATS FURTHER
SOUTH. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP FOR A BIT AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY MORE ON THURSDAY AS
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BRINGS
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...THE GFS SHOWS GREATER AMPLIFICATION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR FILTERING DOWN. A STRONG
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
INTO THE AREA. LOW MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET UP DECENT RADIANTIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW TEMPS ON
SUNDAY MORNING DIPPING INTO THE FREEZING MARK OVER INLAND COUNTIES.

MARINE...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...THEN INCREASE AS COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE
AREA...PROBABLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
MOB 071/081 068/080 059 13467
PNS 073/081 070/079 061 13368
DTS 075/081 072/079 064 13358
GZH 070/082 066/077 054 13666
2RO 067/079 060/076 050 13873
61A 068/079 063/078 054 13865

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM MSZ067-075-076-078-079

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-290000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 AM CST MON OCT 28 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A WIGGINS TO GROVE HILL TO CAMDEN LINE.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA TODAY.  A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS..THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS.  COMBINING THE EFFECTS OF THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TORNADOES.

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALSO SATURATED THE GROUND ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF INTO SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS AND CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS
RESULTS IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE
WET WEATHER.  IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
FILTERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.