Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2002

FCST FOCUS ON MORE LIMITED CHC FOR PCPN THIS EVENING...THEN COOLER
AND EXTENDED DRY PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

VERY POSITIVE TILT TO WEAK TROF THRU DEEP LAYER...PRODUCING
UNFAVORABLE WRLY FLOW AT MOST LEVELS.  LLV CONVERGENCE LIMITED AS SFC
LOW AND ASSOC CDFNT ARE WEAK.   ORIENTATION OF APPROACHING BNDRY ALSO
PRECLUDES GOOD LLV FORCING.  SOUNDINGS ARE WARM WHICH IS LIMITING
AVAILABLE CAPE. CAPES OFF THE NEW 12Z ETA PROG SOUNDINGS FOR MSN HAVE
NOW DROPPED BELOW 1000 FOR THIS AFTN.  TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE LO/MID 90S WITH DWPNTS LO/MID 70S. SFC BASED LI/S AT -8.
MODIFIED RUC40 SOUNDINGS GIVEN CURRENT NUMBERS SHOW CAPES OF
4000J/KG. AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH THREAT FOR STORMS
STILL REAL. ETA QPF ACTUALLY SHOWS QPF AMOUNTS DIMINISHING AFTER
18Z...PRODUCING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH AT MKE AND LESS THAN 1/2
INCH AT MSN FOR THE EVENT.

WL HANG ONTO CHCY POPS UNTIL BNDRY COMES THRU. LAST MINUTE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

DWPNTS SLOW TO SCOUR ON TUES...BUT DRY AIR TO EVENTUALLY MIX IN.
WED-FRI LOOKING AT OR BELOW NORMAL ON TEMPS. DWPNTS BACK TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVEL.  UNFORTUNATELY...MISSED OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LEAD INTO
ANOTHER 5 DAYS OR SO OF DRY WEATHER.

GUID TEMPS LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY ETA MOS EARLY IN FCST RANGE.

.MKX...NONE.

DAVIS

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-090005-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
633 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2002

AT 630 PM...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...FROM GREEN LAKE COUNTY EAST TO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM THE BARABOO
AND PORTAGE AREA SOUTH THROUGH DANE COUNTY...AND THEN BACK THROUGH
GREEN AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES.

ALL OF THE THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT ABOUT 35 MPH...AND DUMP
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

ADDITIONAL LINES OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WERE FOUND OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AT 630 PM. THESE STORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY AFFECT SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
MONDAY EVENING.

KAPELA

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-090045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
720 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2002

AT 720 PM...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. THE STORMS WERE
NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PORT WASHINGTON...TO BEAVER DAM...TO
DEERFIELD IN DANE COUNTY...TO WESTERN ROCK COUNTY.

ALL OF THE THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT ABOUT 35 MPH...AND DUMP
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS ON A LOCAL BASIS COULD RANGE UP TO 1 TO 2
INCHES.

THE STORMS WILL REACH THE MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA AREA BY 900 PM OR
THEREAFTER.

KAPELA

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-090100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
740 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2002

AT 740 PM...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. THE STORMS WERE
NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PORT WASHINGTON...TO WATERTOWN...
TO WHITEWATER...TO BELOIT.

ALL OF THE THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT ABOUT 35 MPH...AND DUMP
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS ON A LOCAL BASIS COULD RANGE UP TO 1 TO 2
INCHES.

THE STORMS WILL REACH THE CITIES OF MILWAUKEE AFTER 830 PM...AND
KENOSHA AFTER 900 PM.

KAPELA

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-090130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
800 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2002

AT 800 PM...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. THE STORMS
WERE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PORT WASHINGTON...TO WATERTOWN...
TO WHITEWATER...TO DELEVAN IN WESTERN WALWORTH COUNTY.

ALL OF THE THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT ABOUT 35 MPH...AND DUMP
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS ON A LOCAL BASIS COULD RANGE UP TO 1 TO 2
INCHES.

THE STORMS WILL REACH THE CITIES OF MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AFTER
900 PM.

KAPELA

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-090215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
845 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2002

AT 845 PM...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. THE STORMS
WERE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BROWN DEER...TO WAUKESHA...TO
TWIN LAKES IN WESTERN KENOSHA COUNTY.

ALL OF THE THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 MPH...
AND DUMP BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS TO
40 MPH. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS ON A LOCAL BASIS COULD RANGE UP
TO 1 TO 2 INCHES.

SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINGS.

THE AREA FROM MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA WILL EXPERIENCE THE STORMS
BY 900 PM...OR THEREAFTER.

KAPELA

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-090245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
915 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2002

AT 915 PM...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. MOST OF
THE STORMS WERE IN A 25 MILE WIDE BAND...EXTENDING FROM WISCONSIN
DELLS...TO FOND DU LAC...TO PORT WASHINGTON.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM WAUKESHA EAST THROUGH
MILWAUKEE. OTHERWISE...THE STORMS WERE MORE SCATTERED.

ALL OF THE THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 MPH...
AND DUMP BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS TO
40 MPH. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS ON A LOCAL BASIS COULD RANGE UP
TO 1 TO 2 INCHES.

SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINGS.

THE AREA FROM RACINE TO KENOSHA WILL EXPERIENCE THE STORMS
BETWEEN 930 AND 1100 PM...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.

KAPELA