Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
215 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2002

LOOKS LIKE THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT OF THE PAST 4 DAYS IS ABOUT OVER WITH
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO ESTRN NC.
FCST 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 17C AS OPPOSED TO 20C AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT REGIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKS HEAT HAS BROKEN DOWN AND
ESTRN NC WILL BRIEFLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE A WEAK UPPER LOW
VCTNY OF SAV GA. SINCE WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS UPPER
SYSTEM...IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE WX.
HOWEVER...LOWER SFC PRES VCTNY OF THE GA/SC COAST WILL KEEP A LGT
ONSHORE FLOW INTO ESTRN NC THU AND FRI. WE WILL BE FOLLOWING THE AVN
SFC EVOLUTION AS THE ETA SEEMS RATHER CONVOLUTED LOWERING PRES
INLAND TOO MUCH. WE PREFERRED LOWER PRES ALONG THE COAST AS A
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
FTR...SLIGHTLY COOLER 500 MB TEMPS AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE...I WILL
GO WITH A 20 POP FOR THE SE COAST ON THU. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
RELOCATING TO THE GULF ON FRI...A DRY FCST WILL BE MAINTAINED. A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WAS USED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A 20 OR 30 POP (DEPENDING ON RADAR COVERAGE)
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ANY RESIDUAL LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

EFP: A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE IN VCTNY OF MO WILL DOMINATE THE WX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
FTR WILL DEFLECT SIG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AWAY FROM ESTRN WHILE
MAINTAINING A GENERALLY LOW MEAN RH PROFILE. THE 12Z AVN DISPLAYED A
NEW WRINKLE IN BRINGING A WET TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY ASSCTD
WITH GULF LOW PRES. I HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS AND WILL KEEP THE EFP DRY
THROUGH DAY 7.

MARINE: 17Z OBS INDICATING WEAK BNDRY JUST TO OUR S WITH LT N-NE
SYNPTC WINDS ACROSS MOST INLAND SPOTS. ALONG THE COAST...THE CBRZ
HAS PUSHED IN A FEW MILES HELPING TO TURN THE WINDS S ALONG THE
BEACHES. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON BNDRY TO THE S WITH WEAK RIDGING
GENERALLY N-NE OF HAT. THE MAIN DIFF ON MDLS CONCERN WIND
DIRECTIONS...AS ETA IS STRONGER WITH SFC LOW DVLPMNT SW OF THE
REGION. OVERALL...FAVORING AVN WINDS GIVEN ITS REASONABLE SFC LOW
DVLPMNT TO OUR SW AND EXPECTING LT WINDS WITH AN ERLY COMPONENT NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND SEAS AOB 3FT.

.MHX...NONE.

ELARDO/PETRO