Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
222 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGES COME IN THE FIRST TWO PERIODS. QUESTIONS INCLUDE
HOW MUCH MORE RAIN IN SOUTHEAST AR...HOW MUCH MORE SNOW IN NORTH
AR...WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL SNOW IN CENTRAL/SOUTH AR...AND WHEN THE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT.

FOR SOUTHEAST AR...THE POWERFUL STORM COMPLEX OVER LA/MS IS FINALLY
TAKING ITS TOLL BY DISRUPTING THE INFLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
MODELS HAVE NO CLUE ABOUT THIS...BUT THE RAPID EROSION OF THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS A DEAD GIVEAWAY.
EXTRAPOLATION OF BACK EDGE OF PRECIP DEPICTED ON KSHV RADAR SUGGESTS
RAIN WILL END IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AROUND 10Z...OR RIGHT ABOUT
PRESS TIME. MORNING POPS FOR THIS AREA WILL BE A LAST MINUTE CALL.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ALSO BUT THIS CALL IS
SUBJECT TO LAST MINUTE OVERTURNING.

FOR NORTH AR...DYNAMIC FORCING HAS REACHED A MAXIMUM AND SHOULD BE
ON THE DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INFLOW DISRUPTION
EFFECTS OF THE STORMS FARTHER SOUTH WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
REACH THIS AREA...BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10Z AND PERSIST
A LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT IN THE NORTHEAST. MAY BE ABLE TO LET THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10Z...BUT
WILL MAKE FINAL DECISION BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RESULTS OF PHONE
CALLS TO AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AFTER 09Z.

SNOW POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH AR IS MINIMAL BUT NONZERO.
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED INFLOW DISRUPTION WILL PLAY A
MITIGATING ROLE. 00Z MESOETA ISENTROPIC PROGS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD
DURING THE AFTERNOON OF SHARP RISES ON THE 275-285K SURFACES WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET DOWNGLIDE. THIS SHORT BURST OF UPWARD
MOTION MAY WRING OUT A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE LINGERING AROUND...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. 06Z
MESOETA JUST CAME IN AND IT ALSO SHOWS THE SHARP RISE MOVING FROM
NORTH AR TO SOUTH AR BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT WHEN LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC SURFACES BEGIN TO SINK RATHER THAN RISE. 00Z MESOETA
SHOWED THIS OCCURRING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 06Z RUN IS A LITTLE SLOWER
AND HINTS AT SOME STRATUS HANGING AROUND IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

HAVE NOT LOOKED AT TEMPS YET DUE TO FLOODING AND WINTER WEATHER
CONCERNS. WILL ISSUE UPDATED AFD INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS AND ADVISORIES
IF ANY AROUND 4 AM.

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND. FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST
TWO DAYS OF THIS PACKAGE.

.LZK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM ARZ003>006-012-013.
       FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM ARZ056-057-062>069.
       SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM ARZ007-014>016-023-024.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
905 PM CST MON DEC 23 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF THE STATE...A WINTERY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER IS SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...MOVES THROUGH.

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS AND MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY ENDS.

ACROSS THE CENTRAL ARKANSAS...RAIN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST EVEN THOUGH
IT WILL END BRIEFLY LATE THIS EVENING. THE COLD AIR WILL BE SLOWER
TO ARRIVE AND BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE...MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS
PLENTIFUL. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...ONLY A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED. IN THE SOUTH...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
TONIGHT...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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