Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED CCF NUMBERS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
342 AM CST TUE MAR 19 2002

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER TIMING AGREEMENT THIS RUN. THIS IS
NOT A GOOD THING...BECAUSE THEY ARE CONVERGING TOWARD SLOWER
TIMING...WHICH MEANS HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE NOGAPS IS THE OUTLIER AS
IT PUSHES THE PRECIP AXIS EAST 12-24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF RIDGING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE LOOPS...PREFER THE ETA WHICH IS THE
SLOWEST TO MOVE THE PRECIP AXIS.

FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING SCENARIO. HEAVY PRECIP AXIS
REMAINS OVER NORTH HALF OF CWFA TODAY...THEN SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT...
FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND EXITS THE
CWFA TOMORROW EVENING...WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF FOUR INCHES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS FOR TODAY...THEN EXPANDED
AREAWIDE FOR TONIGHT.

REGARDING OTHER ITEMS...NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
UNTIL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH OUR AREA TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE THEY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS MADE BY THE FRONT. SMALL DIURNAL RANGES WILL
BE THE RULE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

IN THE EXTENDED...WILL PUSH BACK NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SUNDAY DUE
TO THE SLOWING TRENDS IN THE MODELS. WILL ALSO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT.

HRO   53  41  54  39 / 100  90  40  --
LIT   63  51  58  45 /  70 100  90  40
HOT   64  53  59  46 /  70 100  70  30
PBF   67  54  61  47 /  50  80 100  50

.LZK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
       ARZ003>007-012>016-021>024-030>031-037>038.
       FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR
       ARZ025-032>034-039>047-052>057-062>069.

54

ARZ025-032>034-039>047-052>057-062>069-191930-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
434 AM CST TUE MAR 19 2002

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MENA TO CONWAY TO NEWPORT.

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
ARKANSAS. IT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
ARKANSAS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL NOT BE SEVERE...
BUT THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL. THESE COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LARGE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS LONG AS THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE FRONT
MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...AND
AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS MAY BE NEEDED...WITH THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR ANY ACTIVATION BEING THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

29