Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
300 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...

THE PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED - NOW ITS JUST WAIT FOR SOMETHING TO
HAPPEN. DAYTIME HEATING/HI RH HAS PUSHED SFC BASED CAPE OVR 3000 IN
MUCH OF THE CWA. ANY CELLS THAT DO DVLP COULD BE PULSE SVR. BETTER
CHC WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE AS FNTL BAND DRAWS CLOSER. BOXES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OH/KY...AND XPCT THESE WL CONTINUE BEING
ISSUED INTO THE EVENING HRS. SPC IS CONSIDERING BOXING MUCH OF OUR
CWA. STAY TUNED...

MDLS CONTINUALLY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE FNT...W/ WK WV FORMING OVR
SRN VA THURS AFTN. DAY 2 OUTLOOK CONTINUES CHC OF SVR IN THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWA...AND GNRL TSTMS ACROSS RMDR OF AREA THURS. WL
CONTINUE POPS DURING THU/THU NGT. TEMPS COOLER ON THURS W/ INCRSD
CLD CVR.

WOODY

LONG TERM...FRI THRU NEXT WED...

SHORTWAVE PUSHES THRU THE AREA FRI AND SHOVES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCD SFC WAVES TO THE SE OF THE AREA. HGTS RISE OVR THE
WEEKEND AS STG UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDS ALG THE E COAST. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHR BY MON. UPR LVL RDG SHIFTS OFFSHR BY TUE/WED AND NEXT
UPR LVL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE ASSOCD SFC FNT WILL MOVE ACRS
THE REGION WED.

TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE MODELS TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR
LATE THU AND FRI. WILL KEEP CHC OF SHRA GOING INTO EARLY FRI MORNING
IN AREAS E OF THE BLUE RDG. MODELS UNANIMOUSLY CLR THINGS OUT FOR
LATE FRI WITH CLR SKIES OVR THE WEEKEND. AIR MASS OVR THE AREA WILL
BE PLEASANT BY JUNE STANDARDS. ONLY THING TO WATCH FOR IS THE
ONSHORE FLOW BUT WITH SFC HIGH OVRHD...THINK SUBSIDENCE WILL RULE SO
CLR FCST.

SOME CI COMING OVR THE RDG ON MON BUT STILL M/S. AIR MASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE AS UPR LVL RDG AND SFC HIGH SLIDE OFFSHR SO WILL
HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TUE AFT/EVE WITH A BETTER CHC WED AS
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE AREA.

WITH SUCH A STRONG UPR LVL RDG AND HIGH HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WENT A BIT ABV MRF MAX TEMPS AND EVEN I MAY
NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH.

WALSTON

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
609 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0430 PM    INWOOD                    WV   WIND DAMAGE
06/05/02   BERKELEY                       TREE DOWN ON HOUSE

JLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
622 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0545 PM    BERRYVILLE                VA   WIND DAMAGE
06/05/02   CLARKE                         TREE DOWN

JLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
624 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0615 PM    PHILOMONT                 VA   WIND DAMAGE
06/05/02   LOUDOUN                        TREES DOWN

JLW

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