Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 16Z REVEALS COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF
GAGE TO NEAR AMARILLO TO TUCUMCARI. FRONT SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW NORTH OF LUBBOCK. TROF
AXIS WAS BISECTING CWFA...LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN...WHILE THE DRYLINE WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
THE TX/NM BORDER. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT A VARIETY OF WIND
DIRECTIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWFA DUE TO TROF AND SFC LOW.

VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MIX NEAR I-27 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR NEAR DRYLINE/TROF/FRONT INTERSECTION
BETWEEN TULIA AND CHILDRESS. SEE LATEST SWODY1 FROM SPC FOR DETAILS.

.LUB...NONE.

SGE

TXZ021>044-241930-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS AREA
IS NEAR AND EAST OF A BRICE TO MATADOR TO ASPERMONT LINE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SOUTH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS AREA IS
NEAR AND EAST OF A DIMMITT TO TAHOKA LINE.

LATE THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE NEAR A LINE FROM TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO AMARILLO TO GAGE
OKLAHOMA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A QUITAQUE
TO TAHOKA LINE. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS
THIS AFTERNOON...STALLING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND KEEPING A
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. FINALLY...A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE WHERE THE CONVERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE. EAST OF
THE DRYLINE...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WHILE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY HIGH. THESE FACTORS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FURTHER WEST...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT ALONG
OR BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS OR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IF STORMS FORM IN THIS AREA...THEY ALSO WILL
HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MOVE SOUTH WITH THE FRONT EXPANDING THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044-250200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
249 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WHICH WILL BE
IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

CHILDRESS...COTTLE...DICKENS...HALL...KENT...KING...MOTLEY AND
STONEWALL.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL
TELEVISION...OR RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.