Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
200 AM CDT THU JUL 18 2002

THIS LOW IS STARTING TO GET OLD...

INDICATIONS WERE THAT MOST OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOONS ACTION WOULD
HAVE TAKEN PLACE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  GRANTED...THERE WERE A FEW STORMS DOWN
THERE...BUT SATELLITE PICS AND LIGHTNING DATA FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON SHOWED THE VAST MAJORITY OF ACTIVE WEATHER UP IN OUR
NORTHER ZONE GROUP WHERE I PUT IN THE LOWEST POPS.  AT LEAST MY
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE BETTER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...IT WAS WARMER UP NORTH THAN MY NUMBERS OR
WHAT GUIDANCE GAVE ME.  POSSIBLY THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ALONG WITH A LITTLE MORE HEATING THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED WAS
ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF ALL THAT CONVECTION.  METAR AND MSAS ANALYSIS
FROM YESTERDAY MORNING SURE DOESNT SHOW ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES OF
CONSEQUENCE.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE PERSISTENCE IS STILL THE BEST FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM.  BOTH THE AVN AND ETA ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF OUR LITTLE ORPHAN LOW AND THE POSITION OF THE BACK DOOR
FRONT AT 12Z ON SATURDAY MORNING.  THINK THE AVN FINALLY HAS THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY MORNING AND NEVER PUSHING INTO OUR AREA
AT ALL.  LOW FINALLY GETS PICKED UP IN THE MEAN FLOW AND DEPARTS ON
FRIDAY.  WITH THAT IN MIND...THINK THE GOING ZONES LOOK PRETTY GOOD
AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE.

.STL...NONE

CARNEY