Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Louisville, KY

November 10, 2002Warren County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 10, 2002, 6:11 PM CST for Warren County, Kentucky. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 10, 2002, 6:11 PM CST (00:11 UTC)
Expired: Nov 10, 2002, 6:45 PM CST
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Warren County, KY

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Nov 10, 3:00 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1368 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1177 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 73 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 490 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 560 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 15.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

212 
WUUS53 KLMK 110011
SVRSDF
KYC227-110045-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOWLING GREEN

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 605 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM HADLEY TO 8 MILES WEST OF
  ROCKFIELD...OR FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOWLING GREEN TO 16 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF BOWLING GREEN...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PLUM SPRINGS...PLANO...BOWLING GREEN AROUND 620 PM CST
  ALVATON AROUND 625 PM CST
  SMITHS GROVE...OAKLAND...CLAYPOOL AROUND 630 PM CST
  THREE FORKS AROUND 635 PM CST

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING
UNTIL THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND ANY
DOWNED POWER LINES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE NOTICE.

LAT...LON 3717 8663 3695 8667 3681 8645 3693 8618
          3708 8618

FUNK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 10, 12:05 PM CST, 6 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 10, 12:05 PM CST, 6 hours 6 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

...MDT/HIGH RISK SVR FOR LMK CWA INTO TONIGHT...

SIG SVR WX EPISODE APPEARS IMMINENT FOR LMK CWA, WITH BKN LINE OF
SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER IN/IL/MO ATTM. NEARLY STEADY SWLY
35-40KT FLOW AT 900MB WILL INTERCHANGE OVER OUR REGION WITH 70-80KT
500MB FLOW ASSOC WITH APPROACHING JET STREAK, SIG INCR SHEAR VALUES.
12KM ETA BUFKIT FCST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST INITIAL PERIOD OF
SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN TRANSITIONING TO
MORE OF A LINEAR MODE AS SFC TROF APPROACHES CWA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME ISOLATED LEADING EDGE CELLS OVER SERN MO/SRN IL, SUGGESTING
SUPERCELL THREAT MAY BE REALIZED. FORWARD PROPAGATING MESO-BETA
ELEMENTS MAY HAVE VECTORS NEARING 230/85KT WITHIN LARGER SCALE
LINEAR SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD HAVE A QUICK EAST MOTION PER 700MB ETA
OMEGA FIELDS.

ONLY LMTG FACTOR (FOR TIME BEING) OVER CWA IS A SMALL CAPPING
INVERSION 750MB, INDICATED BY ARRIVING A/C FROM ANCHORAGE INTO SDF
AT 15Z. RUC FCSTS THIS 750MB PRE FRONTAL WARM PLUME TO RESIDE OVER
CWA TIL 20-21Z, THEN COLLAPSE AT STG FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY PUSHES INTO CWA. ANOTHER INTERESTING THING TO NOTE IS
RUC/ETA FCSTING SUBTLE SFC WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT OVER WRN TN
00Z/MON, WHICH WOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HELICITIES,
SUPERCELLULAR POTENTIAL, AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOWN IN
SRN KY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LOOK
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, SOME POST
FRONTAL STRATIFORM PCPN WILL LIKELY FOLLOW DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TS COMPLEX SHOULD PUSH EWD AND EXIT LMK CWA IN THE WEE HOURS MONDAY
MORNING. KEEPING IT BRIEF HERE, NEXT WX STORY IS SFC LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS SERN CONUS TUE AM, WITH POSITIVE FEEDBACK RESPONSE DEEPENING
MID-LEVEL TROF OVER CWA. LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THOSE COOL, RAW, AND
CLOUDY DAYS TUE WITH NLY SFC FLOW. GIVEN FCST L/RS WITHIN TROF
AXIS, SOME SPRINKLES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT WILL LEAVE ZFP DRY
FOR NOW. CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW RACES ACROSS GREAT LAKES THU-FRI, WITH
ATTENDANT CF FCST BY 12Z GFS TO SLIDE INTO LMK CWA DURING SAID
PERIOD. DECENT DYNAMICS AND SOME MOISTURE SUGGEST CHCS OF PCPN OVER
CWA.

.SDF...NONE.

XXV

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 10, 11:15 AM CST, 6 hours 56 minutes before

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1215 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...

A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION IS SETTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY WITH A MAJOR SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64...WITH
A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THAT AREA.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL MOVE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL TURNING OF
THE WINDS...ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH RISK AREA ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA MUST REVIEW
SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES NOW AND HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION READY WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS IN YOUR AREA. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VLD

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 10, 5:33 PM CST, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
633 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0613 PM    HARDINSBURG               KY   WIND DAMAGE
11/10/02   BRECKINRIDGE                   TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE

LD

Local storm report, Nov 10, 5:55 PM CST, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
655 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0550 PM    CLARKSVILLE               IN   .88 INCH HAIL
11/10/02   CLARK

LD

Local storm report, Nov 10, 6:02 PM CST, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
702 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0715 PM    BEFORD                    KY   WIND DAMAGE
11/10/02   TRIMBLE                        POWER LINES/TREES DOWNED

LD

Local storm report, Nov 10, 6:03 PM CST, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
703 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0650 PM    INDIAN HILLS              KY   WIND DAMAGE
11/10/02   JEFFERSON                      TREES DOWNED

LD

Local storm report, Nov 10, 6:08 PM CST, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
708 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0705 PM    3 E SHELBYVILLE           KY   1.00 INCH HAIL
11/10/02   SHELBY                         REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

LD

Special weather statement, Nov 10, 6:11 PM CST, 0 minutes before

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>026-030>032-110300-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
711 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THE TORNADO WATCH (NUMBER 745) WHICH WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST
HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
   JEFFERSON...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...ORANGE...CLARK...DUBOIS...
   CRAWFORD...HARRISON...FLOYD AND PERRY

IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
   TRIMBLE...OLDHAM...JEFFERSON...MEADE AND BRECKINRIDGE

IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY
   HANCOCK AND OHIO

THIS INCLUDES LOUISVILLE, JEFFERSONVILLE, JASPER, BEAVER DAM, TELL
CITY, AND MADISON.

XXV

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 10, 6:09 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Franklin	31 min
Nov 10, 6:25 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson	35 min
Nov 10, 6:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Barren	28 min
Nov 10, 6:40 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Woodford	20 min
Nov 10, 6:43 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Harrison	22 min
Nov 10, 6:44 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Hart	21 min
Nov 10, 6:48 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Fayette	17 min
Nov 10, 6:52 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Green, Metcalfe	23 min
Nov 10, 6:53 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Scott	17 min
Nov 10, 6:58 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bourbon, Nicholas	22 min
Nov 10, 6:58 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Allen	47 min
Nov 10, 7:04 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Boyle, Marion	26 min
Nov 10, 7:09 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Metcalfe, Taylor	36 min
Nov 10, 7:09 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Barren	46 min
Nov 10, 7:13 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LMK	Taylor	2 min
Nov 10, 7:15 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Mercer	15 min
Nov 10, 7:17 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LMK	Taylor	8 min
Nov 10, 7:25 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Monroe	35 min
Nov 10, 7:25 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LMK	Casey	35 min
Nov 10, 7:35 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Metcalfe	25 min
Nov 10, 7:40 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Cumberland	40 min
Nov 10, 7:40 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LMK	Lincoln	35 min
Nov 10, 7:47 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair	28 min
Nov 10, 7:50 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Garrard	10 min
Nov 10, 7:53 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LMK	Russell	37 min
Nov 10, 8:02 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Madison	18 min
Nov 10, 8:02 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Madison	18 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.