Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2002

AT 07Z THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED TO AN IND TO EVV TO PAH LINE WITH
THE WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THERE
IS A DEFINITIVE LACK OF THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
MORNING DESPITE CONTINUED FAVORED SHEAR PROFILE. THE FEW STORMS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A CAP AND WHERE
THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED. THE ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 400 AM AND AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
THAT ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT THE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS DIMINISHING.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE MORNING AND SETTLES ALONG THE KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A BATCH OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDE UP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL BACK OFF THE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH
WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION.  WILL LIKELY SEE MORNING HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING...
WILL HOLD ON TO A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH...
MAINLY EAST OF BOWLING GREEN AND SOUTH OF LEXINGTON. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY LATE IN THE DAY.  WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FEEL THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL HOLD THE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS WELL.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SDF...NONE.

VLD

INZ076>078-083-084-020730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2002

TORNADO WATCH 200 THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...ORANGE...
DUBOIS AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

VLD