Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

THE WARM FRONT HAD SHIFTED NORTH OF THE COUNTY FORECAST AREA (CFA)
AT 1830Z. MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WE EXPECT MOST OF THESE
STORMS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CFA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE.

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION THIS EVENING AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CFA WITH A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR STORMS WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE BUT SLOW AS
IT REACHES THE TENNESSEE BORDER. A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALL A FEW
DEGREES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL EXIT THE SOUTHWEST FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY AND
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. RETURN MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO
THE CFA AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
PRESENTLY WE EXPECT ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
LOUISVILLE BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.

.SDF...NONE.

JA

KYZ030>037-020130-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
825 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
THROUGH 930 PM EDT...

A LARGE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM...LOCATED NEAR CLARK COUNTY IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA AT 820 PM EDT...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST.
THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL CROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVE
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...FROM PROSPECT TO PORT ROYAL...AROUND
850 PM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THIS STORM...CAUSING MINOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN
LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.

THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REACH THE
FRANKFURT METRO AREA...NORTHEAST TO CYNTHIANA...BETWEEN 915 TO 930
PM. CITIZENS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER AS THE
STORM APPROACHES THEIR COMMUNITY.

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
830 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0825 PM    HENRYVILLE                IN   WIND DAMAGE
05/01/02   CLARK                          TREES ACROSS INTERSTATE
                                          65. WINDS 80 TO 90 MPH.
                                          ALSO 1 INCH HAIL. REPORTED
                                          BY INDIANA STATE POLICE.

PKW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
848 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0811 PM    5 N SALEM                 IN   WIND DAMAGE
05/01/02   WASHINGTON                     BARN DESTROYED. REPORTED
                                          BY PUBLIC.

0845 PM    3 NNW CRESTWOOD           KY   75 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
05/01/02   OLDHAM                         REPORTED BY HAM OPERATOR.

PKW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
900 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0858 PM    5 E CRESTWOOD             KY   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
05/01/02   OLDHAM                         ALONG OLDHAM/SHELBY COUNTY
                                          LINE. REPORTED BY HAM
                                          OPERATOR.

PKW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
903 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0855 PM    GOSHEN                    KY   WIND DAMAGE
05/01/02   OLDHAM                         TREES DOWN ACROSS HWY 42.
                                          ALSO 1 INCH HAIL. REPORTED
                                          BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE.

PKW

KYZ036-037-040>043-049-020200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
904 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY
THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

A LARGE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM...LOCATED IN NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY
AT 900 PM...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTO EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO
REACH A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF LEXINGTON TO CARLISLE...AROUND 940
PM.

THIS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THIS STORM...CAUSING
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONDITIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.

CITIZENS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS
AS THIS STORM APPROACHES THEIR COMMUNITY.

JB