Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2002

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO CENTERS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE NEAR CLE
AND ANOTHER NEAR MEM...ALONG A WAVY FRONT PRESSING INTO KENTUCKY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ON RADAR...THE NEAREST MCS DIED OUT JUST BEFORE
IT GOT HERE...BUT ITS GUST FRONT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. JUST SCATTERED STRATIFORM RAIN FOLLOWS THIS. ON
SATELLITE...THE CLOUDS HAVE WARMED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WHILE COOLER CLOUD TOPS ARE PRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ON THAT PART OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AS THINGS BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PASSES THROUGH TODAY AND ANOTHER
DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM CANADA TONIGHT. THE AVN IS JUST A
TOUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER TWO AT 18 HOURS BUT THIS IS INCON-
SEQUENTIAL TO OUR WEATHER TODAY. THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED EASTERN
TROUGH THEN SLIDES EAST RETURNING KENTUCKY TO ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN THIS FAST FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE MESSY SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BEFORE FROPA. HIGH PWS...IN THE 1.8 INCH RANGE...AND PLENTY OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE OUR THREAT OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT LATER THIS MORNING
UPDATING THE STATUS OF THE FFA. THE WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY JUST
AHEAD OF AND AFTER FROPA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL IN THE
RAIN AND COLD POOLS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER, AND EVENTUALLY IN
CAA ON NORTHWEST WINDS. FOR TONIGHT...NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS MOST POST
FRONTAL EVENTS. THE SECONDARY TROUGH...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A SMALL (20 TO 30)
POPS TONIGHT FOR MOST OF MY CWA. FOLLOWING THIS THE WEATHER WILL BE
MUCH MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS
PRESSING DOWN TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT.
LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE JUSTIFIED FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS OUT SIMILAR TO
THE ONE WE ARE FACING TODAY.

PREFER THE COOLER NGM MOS NUMBERS TONIGHT...THE REST ARE SIMILAR...
DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH.

AS FOR IFPS/GFE...POPULATED GRIDS WITH MESOETA TEMPS/WINDS THROUGH
60 HOURS. VERY LITTLE CHANGED BEYOND THAT.

WORK ZONES AVAILABLE BEFORE TOO LONG IN THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL.

PRELIMINARY CCF

LOZ 65/42 64/41 +2-0
JKL 66/41 62/45 +210

.JKL...FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

GREIF