Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1105 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2002

COMPLEX SFC PATTERN THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON 14Z SFC CHART AND VIS
SAT PICS. AT LEAST 3 BOUNDARYS THAT MAY EFFECT THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST A TAD SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. MODELS PUSH THIS ON THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH IT
REALLY GOES BASED ON 12Z RUN OF THE MESOETA FCST SOUNDINGS.

SOUPED UP AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AND TSRA IGNITED FIRST THING THIS
MORNING ON ONE OF THE BOUNDARYS FROM PIKEVILLE NW BACK TOWARD
LEX/CVG. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WBZ IS HIGH AND IT WILL TAKE HIGH
VILS TO GET DIME SIZED HAIL...(YESTERDAY IT WAS TAKING 60+ VIL) TO
GET THE HAIL TO THE SFC. HIGH PWS SO WILL HAVE TO BE ON GUARD FOR
HEAVY RAINERS AGAIN.

MORE CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY...MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ESP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT PLANNING ON STICKING WITH THE MID 80S
FOR NOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

12Z RUN OF THE MESOETA TRICKLING IN NOW IS A LITTLE CONFUSING WITH
HOW ITS HANDLING VORT AND OMEGAS THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE STILL
STEWING ON IT.

ALL SAID AND DONE...ZONES ARE ON TRACK AND WE STILL HAVE SOME
CONCERN FOR SVR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN ON RAISING POPS CWA WIDE BY
10 PERCENT OR SO TO AROUND 50%. HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AND DEBATING ON
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TYPE OF WORDING.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

.JKL...NONE.

HALL

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
100 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY TODAY. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN
PLACE. BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND MODERATE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT...STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

HALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY
243 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0145 PM    1 W IRVINE                KY   1.25 INCH HAIL
06/02/02   ESTILL                         REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

0153 PM    IRVINE                    KY   .75 INCH HAIL
06/02/02   ESTILL                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0155 PM    IRVINE                    KY   WIND DAMAGE
06/02/02   ESTILL                         TREES DOWNREPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGER

0155 PM    IRVINE                    KY   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/02/02   ESTILL                         REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGER

0155 PM    IRVINE                    KY   FLASH FLOODS
06/02/02   ESTILL                         TWO FEET OF FLOWING WATER
                                          OVER SEVERAL
                                          ROADWAYS. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGER

0213 PM    SHOULDERBLADE             KY   .75 INCH HAIL
06/02/02   BREATHITT                      REPORTED BY
                                          OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE

MH