Severe Thunderstorm Warning 472, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2002

THE OFFICIAL TRACK OF HURRICANE LILI IS NOW A LITTLE FASTER
AND FARTHER EAST THAN LAST NIGHT. LILI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANNA COAST AND
TRACK NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY REACHING THE MS DELTA
REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF LILI IS EXPECTED TO
BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR CWA. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS COULD REACH NATCHEZ AND OUR SOUTHERN MOST LOUISIANA
PARISHES BY 1 PM AND REACH AS FAR NORTH AS VICKSBURG BY 7 PM.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 49 AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY
82...THEN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 TONIGHT. WL UPGRADE OUR PREVIOUSLY
DEFINED HURRICANE WIND WATCH AREA TO A WARNING. WL UPGRADE OUR
PREVIOUSLY DEFINED TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA TO A WARNING SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM CROSSETT TO LOUISVILLE.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 4 TO
6 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES IN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE TRAINING OF PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS.

THE REMNANTS OF LILI ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SECOND
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. COOLER AND
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE FIREST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 82/70/87/66 8 8++4
MEI 84/69/86/66 8 7894

.JAN...
AR...FLOOD WATCH TODAY ARZ074-075. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT ARZ074-075.
LA...FLOOD WATCH TODAY LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. INLAND HURRICANE
WIND WARNIG TODAY LAZ016-023>026. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING
TODAY LAZ007>009.
MS...FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND FRIDAY MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING MSZ047-053-059>061. INLAND TROPICAL
STORM WIND WARNING TODAY MSZ040>044-048>050-054>056-062>065-072>074
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1115 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

HURRICANE LILI IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AND PASS
THROUGH NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE THE
OUTLOOK AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...MEANING THAT
STRONG SHEAR COULD SUPPORT TORNADOES WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.

...FLOODING...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LILI WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL
RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THESE BANDS. VERY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS
ABOVE 8 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. THE GROUND WAS STILL SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS RAIN...FLOODING OF RIVERS...STREAMS...ROADWAYS AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PERSONS TRAVELING THROUGH THE
WATCH AREA SHOULD AVOID ALL AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
HURRICANE LILI UNDERWENT WEAKENING JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...AND
THIS HAS REDUCED THE THREAT OF HURRICANE OR STRONG TROPICAL FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL...STRONG...GUSTY WINDS CAPABLE OF
DOWNING TREES AND CAUSING OTHER WIND DAMAGE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. IN THIS AREA SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD
APPROACH 40 TO 45 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO
55 MPH POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND WEST
OF A GRENADA TO HATTIESBURG LINE...BRIEF PERIODS OF 40 TO 45 MPH
WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. FARTHER
TO THE EAST...WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.