Severe Thunderstorm Warning 474, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2002

MAIN DIFFICULTIES WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE LINGERING POPS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF LILI AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STILL BE OVER THE PLAINS...AND LILI IS
OVER EAST CENTARAL LOUISIANA. AS FAR AS MODEL GUIDANCE GOES...PREFER
THE AVN OVER THE ETA. ETA TACKS THE CENTER TOO FAR TO THE WEST OF
THE ACTUAL TRACK. AVN LOOKS TO HANDLE THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION MUCH
BETTER. WITH THAT SAID...AVN HAS SLOWED DOWN THE EXIT OF LILI (OR
HER REMNANTS) A BIT AND LINGERS PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA TROUGH
FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKLEY AS TRAINING OF
CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DUMP COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE FFA THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE CWFA.

SEVERE WEATHER AND HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAUGE THE CWFA
THROUGH TONIGHT. PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ARE...KEEPING THE INLAND TS
WARNINGS OVER THE NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES. WIND ADVISORIES FOR
CENTRAL MS...AND CAUTION ON AREA LAKES FOR EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA. CAUTION ON AREA LAKES LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AT THIS TIME FOR
THE ENTIRE CWFA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST AREAS FOR LINGERING STORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE PUSHED SOUTWARD OVER COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI. HIGH PRESSUE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND
THE AIRMASS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS IFFY WITH THIS SYSTEM (BEST FORCING GOES WELL TO
THE NORTH AND THE GULF IS SHUT DOWN)...BUT WILL NOT TAKE POPS OUT
COMPLETELY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT AND SHOULD FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY SHOULD REINFORCE
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

.JAN...
TORNADO WATCH ALL ZONES THROUGH 10 PM
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY ARZ074-075.  WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT ARZ074-075.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNIG TODAY LAZ016-023>026.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074. WIND
ADVISORY MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-042>044-048>
050-054>056-062>065-072>074

32

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1115 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

HURRICANE LILI IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AND PASS
THROUGH NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE THE
OUTLOOK AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...MEANING THAT
STRONG SHEAR COULD SUPPORT TORNADOES WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.

...FLOODING...
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LILI WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL
RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THESE BANDS. VERY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS
ABOVE 8 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. THE GROUND WAS STILL SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS RAIN...FLOODING OF RIVERS...STREAMS...ROADWAYS AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PERSONS TRAVELING THROUGH THE
WATCH AREA SHOULD AVOID ALL AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
HURRICANE LILI UNDERWENT WEAKENING JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...AND
THIS HAS REDUCED THE THREAT OF HURRICANE OR STRONG TROPICAL FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL...STRONG...GUSTY WINDS CAPABLE OF
DOWNING TREES AND CAUSING OTHER WIND DAMAGE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. IN THIS AREA SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD
APPROACH 40 TO 45 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO
55 MPH POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND WEST
OF A GRENADA TO HATTIESBURG LINE...BRIEF PERIODS OF 40 TO 45 MPH
WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. FARTHER
TO THE EAST...WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.