Severe Thunderstorm Warning 396, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2002

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING...THROUGH THURSDAY.

DECENT AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...MOVEMENT OF STORMS IS VERY SLOW AND TO THE
NE. HOWEVER...NE MOTION AND PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AREA AND
SEE NO REASON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH ANY TIME SOON. WILL
MENTION 40/50 SCT POPS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20.

THE ENTIRE FORECAST WILL BE JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PAST TWO
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES...AND THAT IS THE SAME WITH OUR 12Z MODEL RUNS. FOR
TUE...BEST MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN CENTERED
IN THE VICINITY OF MY NW ZONES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FAVORABLE
VERTICAL MOTION AREAS TO BE LOCATED OVER MY SE AND EAST COUNTIES.
BEST POPS WILL BE SE (60%) WITH SCT ELSEWHERE. AS WE APPROACH THE
EVENING...A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM AR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCT
(30%) POPS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW ZONES.

WED LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. 850 MB THETA E RIDGE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE SHORTWAVE I MENTIONED FOR TUE EVENING...
ACROSS THE NW...WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME...STORMS SHOULD FIRE OVER THE NORTH...THEN PROPAGATE INTO THE
CENTRAL AREAS. WILL ONLY MENTION 50 POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO
BE INCREASED PER LATER MODEL RUNS.

NO CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE. BEST MOISTURE AND VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SCT SOUTH...ISOLATED NORTH.

JAN 74/94/75/92/72 4325
MEI 74/92/73/92/72 4425

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

36

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
301200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WIND
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE RAPIDLY AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR LARGE
HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM DEKALB TO CANTON MISSISSIPPI TO WINNSBORO
LOUISIANA.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE REGION
AND  DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO START SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THE EFFECTS OF A SEA BREEZE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH 9 PM. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME MORE STABLE AFTER SUNSET AND  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. MOST ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.