Severe Thunderstorm Warning 393, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 AM CDT MON JUL 29 2002

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOTH THE
AVN AND ETA PROG A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT CONTINUATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND DIURNAL TYPE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SE HALF OF FORECAST AREA TODAY AND MONDAY.
WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY CNTRL/ERN COUNTIES TO KEEP IN
LINE WITH MAV/ETA MOS GUIDANCE. WITH 500 MB TEMPS -6 TO -7 DEG C AND
AFTN SFC BASED CAPES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG...BELIEVE SUPPORT FOR
LOW-END SCATTERED COVERAGE EXISTS THERE BY LATE AFTN BOTH DAYS. NW
HALF OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF BEST MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DYNAMICS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL SYSTEM...SO NO MORE
THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED THERE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE
HOT SIDE OF MID SUMMER NORM.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ETA INDICATES THAT WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL
ENCROACH UPON FORECAST AREA. AN IMPRESSIVE 850MB THETAE RIDGE LOOKS
TO SET UP IN ADVANCE OF SHEAR AXIS WHERE PRECIP WATER VALUES PROGGED
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER NRN/CNTRL ZONES TUES NIGHT...BUT AVN
IS SLOWER WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION...HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE THINKING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOING WITH
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE 00Z AVN AND UKMET ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN NEXT 7 DAYS. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL RESIDE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED RIDGING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND...FROM THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. THIS
PATTERN WOULD LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA IN DISTURBED EASTERLY FLOW...A
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR AFTN/EVNG CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE CURRENT
EXTENDED FORECAST KEEPS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIP CHANCES GOING
THRU THE WEEKEND AND PLAN NO ADJUSTMENTS ATTM. CAVEAT WITH EXTENDED
FORECAST IS EVENTUAL POSITIONING OF STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND...JUST A FEW DEGREES LATITUDE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF RIDGE
AXIS WOULD SET STAGE FOR VERY HOT WEATHER AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 94/74/93/73/92 32324
MEI 94/73/93/73/91 32425

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

43

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
301200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1059 AM CDT MON JUL 29 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WIND
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA MAY BECOME SEVERE AFTER 3 PM AND WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR LARGE
HAIL.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE REGION
AND  AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO START SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION TODAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE
STABLE AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND MOST WILL END BY 10 PM.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.