Severe Thunderstorm Warning 386, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
140 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2002

CONVECTION FROM NORTH MS WAS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE CWA...WITH A
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM YAZOO CITY TO TUPELO. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. MORE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE
BEST INSTABILITY...AROUND SOUTH MS. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGHT MORE CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS BEEN ISOLATED. WILL WAIT ON DEVELOPMENT...TO
DECIDE ON SCATTERED/LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT.

THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AVN SHOWS IT MOVING INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE WAVE TO THE EAST PULLING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA...THE FRONT GETS LOST OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA MOVES EAST AND A SHORTWAVE PUSHES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST...THE FRONT DRAGS ALONG THE COAST AND MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT QPF OVER SOUTH AND EAST. THE
ETA SHOWS THE FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVING OFF
THE COAST LATE THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THE ETA MAY BE TOO FAST. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FROM CONVECTION FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
THE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
WED...GENERALLY FOR NORTHERN GROUPS. WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO WASH
OUT...WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED POPS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF BY
FRIDAY...WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS. BASICALLY GOING WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. THE EXTENDED AVN SHOWS THE WAVE
OFF THE ATLANTIC SHIFTING WEST AROUND SUNDAY...WHILE THE HIGH OVER
TX MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH LIGHT QPF CONTINUING WILL LEAVE
ISOLATED POPS.

JAN 72/90/73/90 73 46432
MEI 71/91/73/90 73 46433

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.