Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
439 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2002

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION NEXT FEW DAYS.

ETA/AVN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH RIDGE OVER THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY BECOMING E/W ORIENTED AND BUILDING W THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THERMAL RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER N MS SHOULD
HINDER ANY DECENT CONVECTIVE CHANCES THERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
FURTHER SOUTH...PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL COLD POCKETS ROTATING AROUND
RIDGE EVIDENT...BUT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THESE. ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES OF
AVAILABLE COLD POCKETS WILL CAUSE CONFIDENCE LEVELS TO BE LOW FOR
ANY GOOD CHANCE POPS.

IN THE LATTER PERIODS...AVN SHOWING A GRADUAL TROFFINESS DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BEING NUDGED
SOUTH WITH COOLING NOTED OVER THE NORTH. BEST INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY BY
WEDNESDAY...BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTH AS WELL.

ETA SHOWING CAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS TODAY WITH
DECENT DRY AIR ALOFT. THESE CAPES LOOK A LITTLE OVERDONE AS THEY ARE
BASED ON UPPER 90 DEGREE HEAT. WHILE THESE TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTH...THEY SEEM A BIT HIGH FOR THE SOUTH. STILL...GOOD LAPSE
RATES FROM SFC-700 MB WITH MID 90 HEAT...POTETNIAL DOES EXISTS FOR
SOME MICROBURSTS. WILL PROBABLY HANDLE THIS POTETNIAL IN HWO.

FCSTID = 26
JAN   95  73  96  73 /  20  10  30  10
MEI   96  73  96  73 /  20  10  30  10

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

GARRETT

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
109 PM CDT SUN JUL 07 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM OVER EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI....INCLUDING THE  MERIDIAN AREA.
SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OF UP TO 60 MILES PER
HOUR.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY FROM AROUND 2 PM THROUGH 9 PM.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OF UP TO 60 MILES AN HOUR.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE.  THE
COMBINATION OF AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A GREENVILLE TO KOSCIUSKO TO
BROOKSVILLE LINE...WHERE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS THE GREATEST.
EXPECT A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP.

WITH DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE...DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS THEY
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON AND BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SUNSET.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.