Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2002

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY CONTINUES TO BE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  A SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE RAIN CHANCES BY
WEDNESDAY AND MAY ACTUALLY REDUCE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AREA
BY MID WEEK AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION INCREASES AROUND THE SYSTEM
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO TRY TO
FACTOR IT INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITH THIS NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB
FLOW REGIME...EXPECT SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NO RELIEF TO THE HEAT IN SIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. EXPECT VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ACCORDING TO AVN EXTENDED
MODEL...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEK-END. EXPECT
CONTINUED PATTERN OF SEASONALLY VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. AN
UNCERTAIN FACTOR IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM COULD
REDUCE OR INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM AND THE PATH OF
MOVEMENT.

JAN   74  95  74  95 /  10  30  10  30
MEI   72  95  72  95 /  20  30  10  30

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

15

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
109 PM CDT SUN JUL 07 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM OVER EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI....INCLUDING THE  MERIDIAN AREA.
SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OF UP TO 60 MILES PER
HOUR.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY FROM AROUND 2 PM THROUGH 9 PM.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OF UP TO 60 MILES AN HOUR.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE.  THE
COMBINATION OF AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A GREENVILLE TO KOSCIUSKO TO
BROOKSVILLE LINE...WHERE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS THE GREATEST.
EXPECT A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP.

WITH DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE...DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS THEY
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON AND BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SUNSET.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.