Severe Thunderstorm Warning 373, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
230 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2002

MAIN FCST PROBLEMS: LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO
THURS EVE, AND TEMPERATURES. FOLLOWING BLEND OF AVN/ETA SFC FRONTAL
POSITIONS THRU 48 HRS.

TONIGHT: EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SWD FRONTAL MOVEMENT TONIGHT INTO
THE FLINT HILLS AND SERN KS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/T-STORMS OCCURRING
ALONG/N OF THE BNDRY. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED, THE ETA SHOWS
DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 300-310K SFCS ALONG/ N OF THE
FRONT SIGNIFYING OVERRUNNING. HEALTHY 850 THETA-E CONVERGENCE
OCCURS IN CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS AS THE LOW LVL JET GETS ESTABLISHED S OF
THE FRONT. MESO-ETA ALSO SHOWS UPR DIVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE LOW
LVL CONVERGENCE, WITH K-INDICES OF 35-40. SO LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH SOME TRAINING OF ECHOES GIVEN THE 850-300 THICKNESS
ALIGNMENT. ISOLD HVY RAINFALL INDICATED BY NCEP AND WITH FFG VALUES
SO HIGH, NOT PLANNING TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH ATTM. REFER TO
TOPHWOICT FOR SVR THREAT TONIGHT. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO FCST LOWS.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT: STRONG UPR JET MAX WL LIFT OUT OF
NM/CO INTO NEBRASKA AS THE MAIN UPR LOW/TROF BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF
THE GT BASIN. FCST AREA WL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT SO UPR
DIVERGENCE WL OCCASIONALLY BE STRONG. ETA/AVN WANT TO LIFT THE FRONT
BACK TO THE N-NW INTO CNTRL KS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPR TROF, BUT
THEY MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE RAINS AND SATURATED AIRMASS N
OF THE FRONT. WL KEEP LIKELY POPS (70%) OVER CNTRL AND S-CNTRL KS
AND 50% IN THE SE. IF CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS RECEIVE WIDESPREAD HVY RAINS
TONIGHT, THEN WE WOULD NEED TO CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR THUR/THUR
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUN WE GET, BUT THE WIND
SHEAR LOOKS CONDUCIVE TO SVR WX ALONG THE FRONT. DID NOT ADJUST
TEMPS, WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE FWC WHICH APPEARS MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD.

THE AVN AND ETA BOTH PROG A MID LVL DRY SLOT TO WORK EWD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
SEWD THRU THE AREA. THIS WL GRADUALLY PUSH THE WIDESPREAD RAINS EWD OUT
OF ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. WL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THURS NIGHT
AREAWIDE, AND THEN REDUCE TO 40/50% OVER ERN AREAS FRIDAY. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT GOING HIGHS OF AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S FRI
GIVEN SOME SUN AND NW COMPONENT.

LONGER RANGE SAT-WED:
MRF/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE STILL SHOWING AN UPR TROF GETTING
CARVED OUT OVER THE N-CNTRL U.S. SAT-SUN. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE HELPING TO CARVE THIS TROF OUT, AND
THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. IF THE SLOWER ECMWF/UKMET MODEL IS
CORRECT, THEN THE FRONT WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SAT NIGHT, AND THEREFORE
SAT HIGHS COULD BE SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE MODELS ATTM AND SINCE WE ARE
ALREADY 6-10 DEG WARMER THAN NCEP HIGHS ON SAT, WL LEAVE CURRENT
FCST HIGHS ALONE. OVERALL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY
BLO NORMAL. DID TWEAK MINS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
MAINLY FOR COORDINATION. MODERATING TEMPS ARE LIKELY FOR MON-WED AS
THIS UPR TROF QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU THE NERN U.S. MON, FOLLOWED BY A
MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER TUES-WED. THIS WL SETUP THE LEE
TROF OVER THE HI PLAINS WITH RETURN SRLY FLOW. WL CONTINUE DRY WX.

FCSTID =  09
ICT   58  73  61  71 /  90  70  60  40
HUT   54  69  58  70 /  90  70  60  30
EWK   57  70  60  71 /  90  70  60  40
EQA   59  73  61  72 /  80  70  60  40
WLD   59  77  63  74 /  70  60  70  40
RSL   45  64  50  70 /  90  70  60  20
GBD   47  66  53  70 /  90  70  60  20
SLN   51  67  55  70 /  90  70  60  20
MPR   54  68  58  70 /  90  70  60  30
CFV   65  83  66  75 /  50  50  70  50
CNU   65  82  65  74 /  50  50  70  50
K88   63  77  64  73 /  70  50  70  50

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-031100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
349 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE, FROM ANTHONY TO WICHITA TO COTTONWOOD FALLS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND 60 MPH WIND
GUSTS. THESE STORMS WILL BE OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE, FROM ANTHONY TO WICHITA TO COTTONWOOD FALLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA. ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP DUE
TO CLOUDS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LATER THURSDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR,
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.