Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
355 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

FCST FOCUS ON EXPECTED CONVECTION TONIGHT...THEN ON PRECIP ANY
LINGERING PRECIP CHCS SUN-SUN NIGHT.

FEEL THE ETA IS SUPERIOR SHORT TERM MODEL THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN
WILL USE AVN. GOING FCST TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL NOT CHANGE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA WHILE THE
PROFILER NETWORK INDICATES ASSOCIATED UPPER DIV JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ONGOING
CONVECTION IS ROOTED ABOVE 600MB AND IS DRIVEN BY INTENSE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA/FRONTOGENESIS. LATEST RUC40 ANALYSIS HAVE
CONTINUED TO SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY ABOVE 750MB WEST OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS WILL THE FORCING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VEERING IN THE 700-400MB LAYER
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE WITHIN THAT
LAYER. RECENT RADAR TRENDS REFLECT A PULSE NATURE TO THE UPDRAFTS
WHICH THUS FAR HAVE NOT LAST MORE THAN 15 MINS. WOULD EXPECT THE
LARGER COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO RACE
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 2 PM. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
HOW THIS EVOLVES SINCE SPC HAS ALREADY ISSUED A SVR BOX JUST WEST OF
THE CWA.

TONIGHT...IN A NUTSHELL THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THETA SFCS RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT SO SOME
PERSISTENT PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL TAPER HIGHEST POPS WEST TO
EAST...WITH A FLOOD WATCH THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND EVENT TAKING SHAPE...GLAD WE ISSUED THAT HWO EARLIER
THIS MORNING

SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE
WOULD EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH LITTLE FORCING SEEN AFTER SLIGHT
RISE IN THETA SFCS EARLY.  WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS EVERYWHERE WITH
AFTERNOON SUN STILL LIKE THE GOING TEMPS.

SUN NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK AREAS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA. ANY STORMS WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT THE
CWA. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE 20 POPS.

MONDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AS THE UPPER
FLOW FINALLY AMPLIFIES LEAVING THE CWA IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

EXTENDED...MRF HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH LOWER
HTS/UPPER TROUGH FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDS/THUR.
A BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S.

FCSTID =11
ICT   60  82  62  86 /  70  20  20  10
HUT   60  82  60  86 /  70  20  20  10
EWK   60  82  61  86 /  60  20  20  10
EQA   60  82  62  86 /  50  20  20  10
WLD   61  82  63  86 /  60  20  20  10
RSL   59  82  58  86 /  50  20  20  10
GBD   59  82  59  86 /  70  20  20  10
SLN   59  81  60  86 /  50  20  20  10
MPR   60  82  61  86 /  50  20  20  10
CFV   60  82  62  85 /  40  20  20  10
CNU   58  82  62  84 /  30  20  20  10
K88   58  82  62  83 /  20  20  20  10

.ICT...
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 400 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES KSZ067>070...
KSZ082>083...KSZ091>094...KSZ098.

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA, KANSAS
1031 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0915 AM    4NW MILBERGER             KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/15/02   RUSSELL

1001 AM    6 NE HOISINGTON           KS   .75 INCH HAIL
06/15/02   BARTON

MEB

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093-152230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BETWEEN 2
PM AND 10 PM...

AN AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FORM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN
THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
GREATEST DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THROUGH THE DAY.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT A LARGER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS MAY IMPACT AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL...AFTER 2 PM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 2 PM WEST OF INTERSTATE 135.

CO