Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
815 PM CST MON DEC 23 2002

POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD
OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE AIR AS 70
DEGREE DEWPOINTS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
UNDERNEATH INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ALOFT. SURFACE FOCUS
PROVIDED BY DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE WITH BOW ECHOES ADVANCING RAPIDLY
EAST TOWARD US FROM JUST WEST OF THE CWA.  ALSO HAVE THE COLD AIR
SAGGING SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 8 PM NEAR
BELLVILLE...HUNTSVILLE TO LUFKIN LINE. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH THE
FRONT THEN RIDE JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  REPORTS COMING IN
INDICATE A LOT OF LARGE HAIL AND VARIOUS DEGREES OF WIND DAMAGE.
EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER MOST OF CWA NOW THROUGH 07Z AFTER WHICH SYSTEM
SHOULD BE EAST OF US. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT/SQUALL LINE
INTERSECTION THE THREAT FOR SUPER CELLS AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
EXISTS. WE THINK FOR OUR AREA THIS WILL PUT THE HIGHEST THREAT FROM
BELLVILLE TO CONROE TO SOUTH OF LIVINGSTON THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE
COAST...PLACING THE HOUSTON METRO AREA RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE.  LARGE
HAIL ...GOLF BALL OR LARGER... AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH
THE BOW ECHOES ALSO LIKELY. NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  ALREADY INDICATING ONE TO THREE INCH RAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD AND SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ANOTHER INCH AS THE
MAIN EVENT PASSES THROUGH. AREA REMAINS UNDER FLASH FLOOD AND
TORNADO WATCHES TIL SYSTEM PASSES TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MINOR TWEAKING OF FORECASTS FIRST PERIOD OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
NEEDED.

30 ET AL

.HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
       SCA GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS.
       SCA 00 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.

GMZ300-330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-241300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
553 AM CST MON DEC 23 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

...TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS APPEARS IMMINENT...

.DAY ONE...
.TODAY...A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND VERY STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO AID THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A POWERFUL
DISTURBANCE IN THE JETSTREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING A LAYER OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD HAVE LONG LIVED
STRONG TO SEVERE TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. A SQUALL LINE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION AND RACE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE NEARING
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD
AVOID GOING OUT ON THE WATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
.TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED BY AROUND 9 AM. SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD PLAN FOR ACTIVATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
400 PM CST MON DEC 23 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0943 AM    LYONS                     TX   1 INCH HAIL
12/23/02   BURLESON                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0951 AM    WEIMAR                    TX   TORNADO
12/23/02   COLORADO                       REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT. CEMETARY
                                          DAMAGED.

1120 AM    3 SW NAVASOTA             TX   TORNADO
12/23/02   BRAZOS                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

1215 PM    2 E BEDIAS                TX   TORNADO
12/23/02   GRIMES                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

1215 PM    BEDIAS                    TX   WIND DAMAGE
12/23/02   GRIMES                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

1245 PM    7 SE MIDWAY               TX   TORNADO
12/23/02   MADISON                        REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
                                          MOBILE HOME OVERTURNED.

0120 PM    2 SW CONROE               TX   TORNADO
12/23/02   MONTGOMERY                     REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0155 PM    EVERGREEN                 TX   TORNADO
12/23/02   SAN JACINTO                    REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 PM CST MON DEC 23 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 PM    3 N KURTEN                TX   .75 INCH HAIL
12/23/02   BRAZOS                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0505 PM    3 N MADISONVILLE          TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
12/23/02   MADISON                        REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.