Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CST MON NOV 4 2002

WARM FRONT REMAINS OFF THE TEXAS COAST. BELIEVE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS MINIMAL ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM THE ZONE FORECAST.
RAINFALL HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM. THINKING NOW IS
THAT THE GREATEST RAINFALL THREAT IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WADSWORTH TO
ANGLETON TO WEBSTER TO LIBERTY...WHERE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DUE TO SUPER-SATURATED
GROUNDS...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

42/45/36/DH
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.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
...SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT STILL IN
PLACE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...

MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...PRETTY MUCH
ACROSS THE SAME PLACE THEY HAVE BEEN FALLING ALL DAY LONG. THIS AREA
HAS AVERAGED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY (COLLEGE STATIONS
DAILY TOTAL AS OF 0140Z STANDS AT 4.31 INCHES). SEVERAL MORE INCHES
(POSSIBLY ANOTHER 2 TO 4) ARE LIKELY BEFORE THIS EVENT COMES TO AN
END LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...GREATEST FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AS THE EVENING/NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE FLOOD THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND TOWARD THE COAST WHERE
GROUNDS ARE ALREADY SATURATED. CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND CORPUS CHRISTI WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE FOCUS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EDGES FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO CONTINUES...AND PRECIP
WATER VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAIN >2 INCHES. SOME CENTRAL
AND COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. STILL THINK >8 INCH EVENT TOTALS WILL BE
REACHED...MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

ALSO...TORNADO THREAT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND SOME OF THE
FIRST TIER COUNTIES INLAND STILL EXISTS TONIGHT PER SPCS LATEST DAY
1 OUTLOOK. FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT.

A NUMBER OF OUR CREEKS...BAYOUS AND RIVERS ARE NEAR OR OVER FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATED RAINS TONIGHT WILL ONLY ADD TO THIS
ONGOING FLOOD THREAT. FLOOD STATEMENT UPDATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ISSUED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

42/45/DH

.HGX...FFA ENTIRE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.
       SCA BAYS AND HIGH ISLAND TO MATAGORDA 0-60 NM.

UPDATED PRELIMS (ONLY LOWERED TONIGHTS TEMPS)...
CLL TT 050/065 045/068 044 +60
IAH TT 056/067 049/069 046 +80
GLS TT 065/072 057/068 056 +80

GMZ300-330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
542 PM CST MON NOV 4 2002

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...
TONIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ONTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST WEEK AND A HALF
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS RESULTED IN THE GROUND BECOMING SATURATED
WITH MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ALREADY PAST FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CREATE FLOODING ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
TUESDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL WILL END DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.