Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
812 PM CST MON NOV 4 2002

...SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT STILL IN
PLACE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...

MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...PRETTY MUCH
ACROSS THE SAME PLACE THEY HAVE BEEN FALLING ALL DAY LONG. THIS AREA
HAS AVERAGED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY (COLLEGE STATIONS
DAILY TOTAL AS OF 0140Z STANDS AT 4.31 INCHES). SEVERAL MORE INCHES
(POSSIBLY ANOTHER 2 TO 4) ARE LIKELY BEFORE THIS EVENT COMES TO AN
END LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...GREATEST FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AS THE EVENING/NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE FLOOD THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND TOWARD THE COAST WHERE
GROUNDS ARE ALREADY SATURATED. CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND CORPUS CHRISTI WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE FOCUS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EDGES FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO CONTINUES...AND PRECIP
WATER VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAIN >2 INCHES. SOME CENTRAL
AND COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. STILL THINK >8 INCH EVENT TOTALS WILL BE
REACHED...MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

ALSO...TORNADO THREAT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND SOME OF THE
FIRST TIER COUNTIES INLAND STILL EXISTS TONIGHT PER SPCS LATEST DAY
1 OUTLOOK. FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT.

A NUMBER OF OUR CREEKS...BAYOUS AND RIVERS ARE NEAR OR OVER FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATED RAINS TONIGHT WILL ONLY ADD TO THIS
ONGOING FLOOD THREAT. FLOOD STATEMENT UPDATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ISSUED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

42/45/DH

.HGX...FFA ENTIRE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.
       SCA BAYS AND HIGH ISLAND TO MATAGORDA 0-60 NM.

UPDATED PRELIMS (ONLY LOWERED TONIGHTS TEMPS)...
CLL TT 050/065 045/068 044 +60
IAH TT 056/067 049/069 046 +80
GLS TT 065/072 057/068 056 +80
------------------------------------------------------------------
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS FROM 2-2.5 INCHES WERE NOTED WITH RAINGAUGES IN
THESE LOCATIONS BUT FOR POINTS SOUTH AVERAGES WERE 1 INCH OR LESS.
PER SFC ANALYSES...THE WARM FRONT HAS STARTED MAKING SOME NWD PRO-
GRESS BACK TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE A
RESULT OF THE DEEPENING CONVECTION JUST SW OF CRP. THIS CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS NE THIS AFTN AOA 25 KTS
AND COULD MAKE THE FORECAST TONIGHT A BIT TRICKIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE STILL INDICATING A RATHER
BUSY OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A SFC LOW/WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER TX
COAST AND WORKS ITS WAY UP THE SHORELINE (IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
RATHER SIGNIFICANT PWS AROUND 2.2).  DIFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL POINTED TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY RAINS AREAWIDE AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR COASTAL/NEAR COASTAL REGION.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH THE 12Z RUNS WERE WITH TIMING...
THE GFS/AVN APPEARED TO BE RUNNING ABOUT 6HRS FASTER THAN THE ETA.
HOWEVER HAVING SAID ALL THIS...THE PRESENCE OF THE CLUSTER OF TSRA
COULD THROW THE PROVERBIAL MONKEY WRENCH IN ALL OUR CAREFULLY LAID
OUT FORECAST MACHINATIONS. SHOULD THIS FEATURE CONTINUE ON ITS NE
TRACK...THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINS/STRONG DYNAMICS COULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL SERIOUSNESS OF THIS EVENT (AS
THE GROUNDS ARE EXTREMELY SATURATED)...WILL OPT TO CONTINUE THE
FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE AND MENTION OF SEVERE WX FOR THE FIRST TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES FROM THE COAST. RAPID CLEARING FROM THE N/NW
STILL ON TAP FOR TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A DRY REST OF THE WEEK. 41/30

GMZ300-330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
542 PM CST MON NOV 4 2002

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...
TONIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ONTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST WEEK AND A HALF
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS RESULTED IN THE GROUND BECOMING SATURATED
WITH MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ALREADY PAST FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CREATE FLOODING ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
TUESDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL WILL END DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.