Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 AM CDT TU SEP 10 2002

EAST TO WEST TRAINING OF SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN SAN LUIS PASS AND SARGENT
TO BETWEEN WEST COLUMBIA AND SWEENEY CONTINUES. BRAZORIA COUNTY
GETTING SOAKED AGAIN AND LAST 4 DAYS KHGX WSR-88D INDICATED THE AREA
BETWEEN SAN LUIS PASS AND FREEPORT MAY HAVE RECEIVED OVER 20 INCHES.
DITTO FOR A SMALL AREA NEAR SWEENEY. IR LOOP INDICATE CLOUD TOP
COOLING FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OVER BRAZORIA AND
MATAGORDA COUNTIES. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER
REGION W/WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING FROM THE SOUTH. PWATS STILL HIGH
OVER SOUTHWEST HALF OF REGION ABOUT 2.1 TO 2.4 INCHES. MODELS AGREE
IN SHIFTING MOISTURE RIDGE GRADUALLY SOUTH TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR BRAZORIA...WHARTON...MATAGORDA AND JACKSON
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH ADVECTING
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WE WILL CONTINUE W/THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TODAY. MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST. KHGX VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATE
30 KT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT 1 KFT. CAUTION CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR
COASTAL WATERS W/SEAS AND WINDS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

AVN AND ETA DIFFER RADICALLY IN HANDLING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW
OVER THE GULF FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AVN SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER
EASTERN GULF WHILE ETA SHOWS CLOSED LOW JUST OFF MEXICAN COAST SOUTH
OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR REGION...WE STILL WOULD BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING W/NE FLOW W/TAIL END OF WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY.

UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS END OF THE
WEEKDAY W/CONSEQUENT LOWERING OF PRESSURES LEE OF ROCKIES AND RETURN
OF ONSHORE FLOW FOR US. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN A COLD FRONT PERHAPS LATE IN THE COMING WEEKEND. MRF
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH INDICATING BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE FROM SW
GULF TO WESTERN CARRIBEAN NEXT WEEK.

37/42

.HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH BRAZORIA/MATAGORDA/WHARTON/JACKSON COUNTIES.
       SCEC GULF WATERS 0-60NM.
       COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE COAST INCLUDING BAYS.

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 092/072 094/071 093 31-
IAH EB 090/072 092/072 092 41-
GLS TE 087/078 090/078 089 52-

TXZ227-237-100815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
113 AM CDT TUE SEP 10 2002

...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MOVING ACROSS
BRAZORIA COUNTY AND HEADED TOWARD FORT BEND COUNTY...

AT 100 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS BRAZORIA COUNTY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY FROM ROSHARON TO
DAMON.

AS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO FORT BEND COUNTY...STRONG WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. PERSONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 59 SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THESE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE
AREA BETWEEN 125 AM AND 200 AM.

DUE TO VERY SATURATED GROUNDS...THESE GUSTY WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO CAUSE DAMAGE...INCLUDING THE DOWNING OF TREES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER EVENT.