Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2002

...STORMS CHANCES SUN THE CONCERN...

EARLY AFTN SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WK SFC TROF XTNDG FM LOW CNTR OVR IA
MAKING GOOD PROGRESS EWD AND NRLY THRU GID CWA. STILL SOME ELEVATED
ACTIVITY WITHIN MID LVL MSTR PLUME NOTED ACRS NRN KS BUT AS YET
NOTHING OF SUBSTANCE TIED TO SFC BNDRY AND MUCH BTR INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE POST BNDRY AIRMASS WARMING UP QUICKLY TKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLW
MIXING OUT WARM BUBBLE OUT WEST.

LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND OBS DATA WOULD SUGGEST GID CWA FREE
AND CLEAR IN TERMS OF CONVN THIS EVENING AS SFC BNDRY AND ATTENDANT
LL FORCING SHIFT E ACRS NE KS AND POINTS E...AND WILL LIKELY DROP
EVENING POP MENTION SE. ATTN SUN AGAIN FOCUSES ON AFOREMENTIONED
BNDRY RTN AND SIG UPR TROF UPSTREAM OVR ID ATTM. TIMING ISSUES
REMAIN WITH PROGRESSION OF UPR TROF AND NWD RTN OF SFC BNDRY. META
SOLUTIONS LAST 3 RUNS OFFERING DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND WILL
RELY ON ITS SFC PROG DEPICTION FOR SUN AFTN. WITH THIS IN MIND...
GIVEN SIG 100+ METER HGT FALLS ALOFT AND CORRESPONDING JET STREAK
INTENSIFICATION TO NR 120 KTS OVR MN BY 21Z PLACES CWA WITHIN VRY
FVRBL ENTRANCE REGION. LL RESPONSE SEEMS SOMEWHAT UNDERDONE BUT
SUFFICIENT AT THIS POINT COMBINED WITH TRIPLE POINT DEPICTION NR KGRI
AND UPR TROF AMPLIFICATION FOR RAPID CONV DVLPMNT AT THAT TIME AS
CORRESPONDING DEEP LYR UVM DEPICTION IS VERY SIGNIFICANT. NO LACK OF
INSTABILITY BUT DISCRETE SVR THREAT CONTINGENT UPON SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF STGR MID LVL FLW AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...WHICH GIVEN META PROGS AT
THIS POINT BELIES INSERTION OF ENHANCE SVR WORDING FOR TOMORROW BUT
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK...MORE SO FM ERN NE AND EWD.
IN THE LEAST...PERHAPS WE WILL FINALLY REALIZE ONE OF THESE HIGH PWAT
ENVIRONMENTS FOR ONCE AND GIVE PARTS OF THE CWA A GOOD DRENCHING.
WILL STILL TOE THE LINE WITH CHC CATEGORY POPS AS PCPN HAS BEEN HARD
TO COME BY IN THESE PARTS. GUIDANCE TEMP SPREAD FOR SUN IS AWFUL.
WILL DISCOUNT NGM ENTIRELY AND PROBABLY SIDE CLOSER TO MET NUMBERS.
AT LEAST THEY ARE MORE AGREEABLE FOR MON.

BEYOND THAT...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT W/OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPR
HGTS/FLW ACRS N HEMISPHERE THROUGH NXT WEEK. SHARP UPR TROF CURRENTLY
OVR SRN ALASKA SHIFTS INLAND ACRS NWT W LW TROFFING EXTNDG INTO NEPAC
AND HOT MID LVL RIDGE RE-CENTERS ACRS CNTRL PLAINS. HWVR MRF THERMAL
PATTN APPEARS ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO ITS HGT PATTN. ECMWF FAR BTR
DEPICTION OF XPCD FERVOR BY LT NXT WEEK...SO DROUGHT CONDITIONS LOOK
TO RTN W/A VENGEANCE ONCE AGAIN.

.GID...NONE.

TEH