Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
312 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2002

...MAIN CONCERN IS TORNADO WATCH IN KANSAS CWA UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR NE SD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUES TO PUMP UP SURFACE MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS KS PUSHING INTO THE 60S. AN SPC
CONFERENCE CALL HAS ELUDED TO A CONCERN FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED. VIS SATL PIX ALREADY SHOW STUFF STARTING TO BLOSSOM IN
SW KS. PROGGED ETA BRN SHEAR...AS WELL AS VGP AND EHI THIS EVENING DO
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR SUSTAINING A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING STORMS
TO DEVELOP A FEW MESOS. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM IN...THE
AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME LESS STABLE WITH TIME AS SUGGESTED BY PROGGED
LI/CAPE/TT. ALSO...LCL HGTS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER OOZ THIS EVENING
OVER MOST OF KS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE PREVALENT IN
KS CWA AND EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. HAIL WILL BE A BIG CONCERN FOR
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEBR CWA AS HEFTY 700-500MB
LRS LAY OVER STRONG THETA-E CONVERGENCE.

THUNDER CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC BOUNDARY ENVELOPES THE AREA...SUGGESTING AN MCS TYPE
EVENT. BUT LACKING LOW LEVEL JET AND EASTWARD SKEWED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ALLOW ONLY SMALL POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL POPS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LINGERING SHOWERS.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

.GID...NONE.

DEE

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1136 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
REACH OR SURPASS THE 80 DEGREE MARK.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL FOCUS ALONG A DRY LINE EARLY
THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

BY MIDNIGHT...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY TO SUPERIOR.  INCREASING WIND FIELDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ESCALATE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND
GUSTS.

DROZD

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
302 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 9 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD.
SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

THESE STORMS MAY CROSS THE NEBRASKA BORDER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.  OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY IN
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SWEEP INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
TOWARD DUSK.

BY MIDNIGHT...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY TO SUPERIOR.  INCREASING WIND
FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO ESCALATE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS.

DROZD