Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2002

UPDATED ZONES AND CCF FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ADJUST POPS AROUND EMORY.  75

=====================================================>

AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR
CEILINGS.  IT APPEARS MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS WILL BE EAST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND TAF ISSUANCE TIME...HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING.  EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA.  WILL MOST LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT ONCE
THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO...EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO STAY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS
MORNING.  COULD SEE STORMS IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING
WILL BE DIFFICULT AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.

441 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2002
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY...
SOME WHICH MAY BE SEVERE DUE TO CONTINUATION OF HIGH CAPES...AND
INTERSECTION OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARM FRONT. TSTMS
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHIFTS NORTHWEST OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
DYNAMICS AND FOCUS AREAS REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA.

UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  IT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE LOCAL CWA THIS WEEKEND
WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS.  BY LATE SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING... COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE WILL MARCH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
SEVERE TSTMS POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN THE
NORTHWEST...AND ENDING EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH MIDDAY LOOKING DRY AND SEASONAL.
MAYBE A FEW TSTMS ON THURSDAY.

FCSTID = 75
DFW   81  70  86  72 /  30  10  10   0
ACT   86  72  88  74 /  20  10  10   0

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
205 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0843 PM    6 S STEPHENVILLE          TX   1 INCH HAIL
05/09/02   ERATH                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

1120 PM    FORT WORTH                TX   FLOOD
05/09/02   TARRANT                        HIGH WATER RESCUE
                                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2002

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TODAY.  A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY NORTH OF A
CANTON...CLEBURNE...TO EASTLAND LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL WEAKEN BY MID MORNING WITH
THE LOSS OF LIFT OVER A LAYER OF COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE.  A WARM
FRONT LOCATED NEAR A SHREVEPORT TO AUSTIN LINE THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHWARD TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS LEE
OF THE ROCKIES.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 80.  MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.